发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

目录
Key forecasts 6
Monetary & fiscal policy
assumptions 7
When the wheels fall off 8
Policy paralysis 8
How bad might it get? 8
The financial ‘black box’ 13
From ‘globalisation’ to ‘localisation’ 14
Compounding problems of those without ammunition 16
The arithmetic of doom 17
Difficult debt dynamics 18
Getting older, but not wiser 20
De-risking and the downward spiral 22
Global economic forecasts 25
GDP 26
Consumer prices 28
Short rates 30
Long rates 31
Exchange rates vs USD 32
Exchange rate vs EUR & GBP 33
Consumer spending 34
Investment spending 35
Exports 36
Industrial production 37
Wage growth 38
Budget balance 39
Current account 40
Country and Territory sections
US 42
Canada 44
Mexico 45
Brazil 46
Argentina 48
Chile 49
Eurozone 50
Germany 52
France 54
Italy 56
Spain 58
UK 60
Norway 62
Sweden 63
Switzerland 64
Hungary 65
Poland 66
Romania 67
Russia 68
Turkey 70
Egypt 72
Israel 73
Saudi Arabia 74
UAE 75
South Africa 76
Japan 78
Australia 80
New Zealand 81
China 82
India 84
Hong Kong 86
Indonesia 87
Malaysia 88
Philippines 89
Singapore 90
South Korea 91
Taiwan 92
Thailand 93
Vietnam 94
Disclosure appendix 96
Disclaimer 97