发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

The BRICs 10 Years On: Halfway
Through The Great Transformation
􀂄 We have updated our long-term growth projections, improving our
underlying framework and expanding coverage to over 70 countries.
􀂄 The BRICs are still set to join the largest economies in the world.
􀂄 The N-11 and other EM should also become significant global players.
􀂄 While the rise in the BRICs and EM share of the world economy still has a
long way to run…
􀂄 ...the biggest changes in their contribution to global growth have largely
already occurred.
􀂄 The weight of low-income countries in overall spending (part of the world
economy’s ‘Expanding Middle’) should continue to increase.
􀂄 The next decade may be a peak period for global growth potential…
􀂄 ….but with slower potential growth within the BRICs, much of EM and
developed markets over the next decade than in the last one, we may see
more tensions between global and national perspectives.
目录
I. The Great Transformation 10 Years On 3
II. Five Big Themes for the Global Landscape 4
Theme #1: At least halfway through the Great Transformation 5
Theme #2: The increasing importance of EM outside the BRICs 6
Theme #3: A further rise in the ‘Expanding Middle’ 6
Theme #4: A peak decade ahead for global growth potential 6
Theme #5: More tension between global and national perspectives 6
III. A (More) Unified Framework for Projecting Growth 7
IV. The Great Transformation in ‘Levels’: Halfway House 8
GDP levels: The same story of ‘overtaking’ 8
Incomes: Slow, but steady progress 9
The ‘Expanding Middle’ begins to takes shape 9
V. The Great Transformation in Growth: More Past than Future 11
Shift in BRIC growth contributions: More behind than ahead 11
More to come from non-BRIC EM 12
A peak decade ahead for global growth potential… 12
…but individual growth rates set to decline 13
Box 1: Growth by Regions: A Peak in Asia in Sight, Acceleration in LatAm and Africa 14
VI. Assessing Risks: A Look Back and A Look Forward 15
Very much a BRICs decade 15
Back-testing the projections: More confidence in growth than FX 16
Maintaining ‘growth environments’—tougher work ahead 16
A less supportive external environment in the near term 17
Global constraints from slowing growth, commodity supply 18
VII. A More Subtle Investment Story 18
Appendix: Our Methodology in Detail 20