发布时间：2014-09-26 来源：人大经济论坛

目 录 1导论....................................................................2 1.1研究背景...............................................................2 1.2 研究意义..............................................................2 1.3 国内外相关文献回顾....................................................3 1.4本文研究思路..........................................................3 2 汇率对进出口影响的一般分析..............................................4 2.1 弹性论................................................................4 2.2 货币分析法............................................................5 2.3 吸收分析法............................................................5 3 回顾人民币汇率变化的过程................................................6 3.2 汇率基本稳定时期......................................................6 3.3 汇率稳中有升时期......................................................6 4我国石油进出口概论......................................................7 4.1世界石油概况..........................................................7 4.2 我国石油进出口概况....................................................8 5人民币汇率变化方向对石油进出口的影响....................................9 5.1 数据来源及基本理论....................................................9 5.2 一元回归分析..........................................................9 5.3 结果分析..............................................................11 6结论及改进建议..........................................................12 6.1 增加汇率弹性实行更加灵活的汇率制度来协调石油价格调整..................13 6.2. 建立以市场供求为基础的石油价格机制配合汇率改革.......................13 6.3 通过拉动内需协调汇率改革与石油价格调整................................13 参考文献..................................................................15 致 谢...................................................................16 摘 要 石油是重要的稀缺性资源，也是重要的工业原料和战略物资。它们的国际价格对国民经济各行各业具有明显的波及效应。随着我国经济高速增长，资源产品需求量迅速增大。深入研究人民币汇率变化方向对石油进出口的影响，提出合理的对策方案，对于保证我国国民经济稳定、快速、持续增长以及保护我国石油的数量，具有重要的理论和现实意义。 本文主要依据弹性论对人民币汇率展开研究，首先介绍论文研究背景、相关文献综述、研究思路与方法；其次运用回归分析，分析了人民币汇率变动对石油进出口的影响，得出汇率小幅适度调整，一方面有利于进口国内紧缺的石油，另一方面使进口石油的价格降低，有利于我国通过进口石油，缓解越来越严重的资源瓶颈对经济发展的制约。最终根据结论提出了合理应对风险的对策。 〔关键词〕 人民币汇率 回归分析 弹性论 Abstract Petroleum is known as the big raw materials of industry. It is scarce resource, a security strategic resource of state economy, so it influences national economy deeply. With economy development of our country, the demand for petroleum increases rapidly, while the production of domestic cannot meet the demand. So the author makes a thorough research on petroleum international price mechanism, put off the countermeasures on petroleum international price risk, will have a practical significance on guaranteeing the fast and stable development of national economy. This paper mainly based on theory of elasticity to study mineral and Renminbi. The introduction mainly introduced the background of research, literature review, methodology, innovation and weakness. Second part depends on regression analysis, has analyzed the effect that exchange rates for the Renminbi against other currencies changes as well as to resource product import and export theoretically, knowing the regulation of exchange rate in a narrow rang will bring some benefit, on the one hand, it will be of advantage to import the petroleum badly need in our country, on the other hand, it will spur the imported petroleum to reduce the prices so that our country will alleviate the restrict of economic development caused by resource bottleneck by means of importing petroleum. The third has put forward the countermeasure answering risk rationally. 〔Keywords〕Rates for the Renminbi Regression analysis Theory of elasticity