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世界经济形势与展望2009 全文（英文版）

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[此贴子已经被作者于2009-5-22 10:58:50编辑过]

Contents
Executive Summary xv
Explanatory Notes .................................................... xix
Global outlook .................................................... 1
The fnancial crisis and the prospects for the world economy ........................ 1
The story of a crisis foretold .................................. 5
The deteriorating international economic environment for developing countries .............. 12
Tightening and more costly external fnancing ......................................................................................... 12
Increased exchange-rate volatility and the risk of a dollar collapse ..................................................... 14
Weakening world trade and commodity prices ............................ 17
A synchronized global downturn ................................. 18
Developed economies .......................................... 20
Economies in transition ........................... 20
Developing countries ....................... 21
Macroeconomic policies to stimulate the global economy ........................ 22
The need for reform of the international fnancial system ........................ 27
Systemic failures ............................... 27
The way forward .......................... 32
II International trade ......................... 35
Trade fows .................................. 35
Merchandise trade: growth deceleration and potential revenue falls................ 35
Trade in services: growth to slow with global downturn ..................... 41
World primary commodities and prices ............................ 44
Non-oil commodities: dramatic price swings ............................ 44
Crude oil: the turnaround that was to be expected in a global slowdown ......................................... 51
Terms of trade for developing countries and economies in transition ................. 54
Trade policy developments: dealing with multilateral
negotiations in the midst of fnancial and food crises ....................... 57
III Financing for development ....................... 61
Net resource fows from poor to rich countries ...................... 61
Private capital fows to developing countries ..................... 62
Foreign direct investment .................................... 68
International fnancial cooperation ............................ 71
Rehabilitating the global fnancial system ..................... 78
Governance reform at the Bretton Woods institutions .................. 81
IV Regional developments and outlook ................. 89
Developed market economies ........................ 89
North America: How severe will the recession in the United States be? ................ 89
Western Europe: Sharp deceleration with many countries now in recession ................. 92
The new European Union member States: A divergent
growth pattern in 2008, a slowdown in 2009 .......................... 96
Developed Asia and the Pacifc : Japan’s economy
enters recession and will contract further in 2009 .................... 99
Economies in transition ....................... 101
South-eastern Europe: Another year of good
performance, though with activity likely to weaken ..................... 102
The Commonwealth of Independent States:
Despite some deceleration, growth remains impressive .................... 103
Developing economies.......................................... 108
Africa: The end of the commodity boom ..................... 109
East Asia: A continuation of deceleration ................................... 114
South Asia: Expectations of a slowdown in robust growth ..................................................................... 116
Western Asia: Resilience amidst deteriorating external conditions ...................................................... 118
Latin America and the Caribbean: Signifcant slowdown in 2009 ......................................................... 123
Statistical annex
Annex tables .................... 127
Boxes
I. 1 Key assumptions for the baseline forecast and the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios ................................ 3
I. 2 Prospects for least developed countries ...................... 7
I. 3 Don’t forget the food crisis ...................... 26
II. 1 The making of the food crisis ....................... 47
IV. 1 The impact of the global fnancial turmoil on the banking
sector of the Commonwealth of Independent States .................... 104
IV. 2 Africa’s response to the food crisis .............................. 111
IV. 3 The creation of a Gulf Cooperation Council monetary union ..................... 120
Figures
I. 1 World economic growth, 2003-2009 ................... 4
I. 2 Real per capita GDP growth in developed and developing countries, 2003-2009 ............................................. 5
I. 3 Divergence in economic performance across developing countries in 2008 ....................................................... 8
I. 4 Daily spread between three-month LIBOR and three-month
United States Treasury bill interest rate, January 2006-November 2008 ............................................................... 10
selected emerging market countries, 31 December 2007 and 23 October 2008 ................................................ 65
III. 4 Infows of foreign direct investment and cross-border mergers and acquisitions,
by region and major economy, 2007-2008 .................................... 70