DAY #08
1.主题
Bloomberg Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading.2013
2.摘要
Analysis and trading rep- resent two different skill sets.
Skilled analysis is a mastery of observation, while successful trading is a mastery of self.
When it comes to trading, there is no right way or wrong way—only your way. One trader’s tolerance for risk will be starkly different from another’s, just as time frame, portfolio size, and markets traded will also be different.
My best advice to you as you look for a trading opportunity is to start your search by asking the question, “Do I see a wave pattern I recognize?”
You should look for one of the five core Elliott wave patterns:
①.impulse wave
②.ending diagonal
③.zigzag
④.flat
⑤.triangle
These forms will become the basis of all your trade setups once you learn to identify them quickly and with confidence.
An even simpler question to ask is, “Do I see either a motive wave or a corrective wave?”
Motive waves define the direction of the trend. There are two kinds of motive waves: impulse waves and ending diagonals.
Corrective waves travel against the larger trend. The three kinds of corrective waves are zigzags, flats, and triangles.
If all you do is identify a motive wave versus a corrective wave correctly, you can still identify some useful trade setups.
Specifically, we will examine how the Wave Principle improves trading, which waves are the best to trade, which guidelines to use for trading specific Elliott wave patterns, and why the psychology of trading and risk management—what I call the neglected essentials—are important.
There are three categories of technical studies: trend- following indicators, oscillators, and sentiment indicators.
Trend-following indicators == MA + MACD + ADX
Oscillators == KDJ + ROC + CCI
Sentiment indicators == put-call ratios + Commitment of Traders report data
They each fall short for one major reason: they limit the scope of a trader’s understanding of current price action and how it relates to the overall picture of a market. It be more useful if they could also help to answer these questions: Is this a new trend or an old trend? If the trend is up, how far will it go?
Most technical studies simply don’t reveal pertinent information such as the maturity of a trend and a definable price target—but the Wave Principle does.
Here are five ways the Wave Principle can benefit you and improve your trading:
1. The Wave Principle identifies the trend. ——>五浪结构指明推动浪方向
2. It identifies countertrend price moves within the larger trend. ——>三浪结构指明修正浪方向
3. It determines the maturity of the trend. ——>分形结构中子浪结构指明父浪结构的成熟度
4. It provides high-confidence price targets. ——>斐波那契预测目标价位
5. It provides specific points of invalidation. ——>推动浪三大铁律指明否定原假设的临界点
Remember, five-wave moves determine the direction of the larger trend, while three-wave moves offer traders an opportunity to join the trend.
At what point does a trade fail?
Many traders use money management rules to determine the answer to this question, because technical studies simply don’t offer the answer.
Yet the Wave Principle does—in the form of these three Elliott wave rules for impulse waves:
Rule 1: Wave 2 can never retrace more than 100 percent of wave 1.
Rule 2: Wave 4 may never end in the price territory of wave 1.
Rule 3: Out of the three impulse waves (waves 1, 3, and 5), wave 3 can never be the shortest.
Knowing when you’re wrong on a trade is as important as knowing when you’re right.
The Four Best Waves to Trade :
Waves 3, 5, A, and C are the most advantageous to trade.
Bullish trade setups = 2浪底 + 4浪底
Bearish trade setups = 5浪顶 + B浪顶
These corrective waves offer the trader an opportunity to rejoin the larger trend. In such trend trading, a trader buys pull-backs in uptrends and sells bounces in downtrends.
Because they are oriented in the direction of the one larger trend.
Odds favor traders who are long in bull markets (and short in bear markets) versus short sellers in bull markets (and buyers in bear markets).
Overall, trading in the direction of the trend is the path of least resistance.
Technical studies can pick out many trading opportunities, but the Wave Principle helps traders discern which ones are more likely to be successful.
This is because the Wave Principle is the framework that provides history and context, current information, and a peek at the future.
The Wave Principle helps to identify these high- confidence trades in place of lesser-confidence setups that traders should ignore.
3.心得感悟
注意关键词:different + specific + define + identify + high-confidence
三大传统技术分析流派==顺势派 + 震荡派 + 情绪派
波浪理论的两大分部与五小类型:
两大分部==驱动浪 + 修正浪
五小类型==推动浪 + 终结楔形 + 锯齿型 + 平台型 + 三角形
波浪理论分析V.S.传统技术分析:
传统技术分析——>无法回答旧趋势是否结束与新趋势能走多远
波浪理论分析——>可以回答趋势的生命周期与目标价位
EWT整体架构framework
A.顶层设计::
传统技术分析海选交易机会——>波浪理论分析优选交易时机
B.分析-决策的workflow::
趋势——>原则——>策略
i.e.
牛市——>谷底做多——>2浪底 + 4浪底
熊市——>峰顶做空——>5浪顶 + B浪顶
4.时间统计
昨日阅读5小时,累计440小时
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