CITI 2018 China Healthcare Sector

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8
Buy R&D Pharma; Distributors Reviving; Be Cautious on
Devices; Sell CSOs 8
1) Valuation rally on industry acceleration and strong company
results 9
Drugs newly added to 2017 NRDL start to volume expand in
4Q17 9
2) Faster product launches; more upside surprises 11
3) Higher drug quality aligned with developed world 12
4) Biotech sector even hotter with surging interests 13
5) China’s fast-growing basic medical market becoming more
important (30% by 2020E) 14
6) Two-invoice policy set to revive large distributor valuations in
2018 15
7) CSOs – 2018 even more challenging 18
8) Only SOEs are sustainable leaders in public hospital reform 19
9) Near-term policy risks rising for medical devices 21
Where Are We in the Growth Cycle? 22
Lee’s, FDZJ and SBP have biggest stock price upsides 25
Lee’s, SBP and Hengrui have the highest potential NPV
contribution from their pipeline 25
SBP, Hengrui and CSPC have highest pipeline sales
potential 26
Hengrui, SBP and 3SBio are most valuable innovation
leaders 27
Evaluating 2017-27E earnings CAGRs with pipeline impact 28
Citi Proprietary Corporate Scorecard 33
Corporate Scorecard – Pharmaceutical Manufacturer 37
Sino Biopharm (1177.HK, Buy) - Evaluation Score: 29/30, R&D
Score: 23/25 37
Hengrui Medicine (600276.SS, Buy) - Evaluation Score: 28/30,
R&D Score: 23/25 38
CSPC (1093.HK, Buy) - Evaluation Score: 25/30, R&D Score:
22/25 39
Livzon (1513.HK, Buy) - Evaluation Score: 25/30, R&D Score:
22/25 40
Fosun Pharma (2196.HK, Buy) - Evaluation Score: 23/30, R&D
Score: 22/25 41
Luye (2186.HK, Buy) - Evaluation Score: 23/30, R&D Score:
22/25 42
FDZJ (1349.HK, Buy) - Evaluation Score: 22/30, R&D Score:
22/25 43
Lee’s (950.HK, Buy) - Evaluation Score: 21/30, R&D Score:
18/25 44
3SBio (1530.HK, Buy/H) - Evaluation Score: 26/30 45
Livzon-A (000513.SZ, Buy) - Evaluation Score: 24/30 46
Qilu Pharma (Non-listed, NR) - R&D Score: 25/25 46
Hisun Pharma (600267.SS, NR) - R&D Score: 23/25 47
Hansoh Pharma (Non-listed, NR) - R&D Score: 23/25 47
HEC Pharma (1558.HK, NR) - R&D Score: 22/25 48
BeiGene (BGNE.US, NR) - R&D Score: 20/25 48
Luoxin Pharma (Non-listed, NR) - R&D Score: 20/25 49
Simcere Pharma (Non-listed, NR) - R&D Score: 19/25 49
Sihuan Pharma (460.HK, NR) - R&D Score: 19/25 50
BJ SL Pharma (002038.SZ, NR) - R&D Score: 18/25 50
Huadong Medicine (000963.SZ, NR) - R&D Score: 17/25 51
Huahai Pharma (600521.SS, NR) - R&D Score: 16/25 52
CBPO (CBPO.US, NR) - R&D Score: 12/25 53
Corporate Scorecard – Pharmaceutical Distributor 54
Sinopharm (1099.HK, Buy) - Evaluation Score: 30/30, Operation
Score: 24/25 54
Shanghai Pharma (2607.HK, Buy) - Evaluation Score: 26/30,
Operation Score: 22/25 55
CR Pharma (3320.HK, NR) - Operation Score: 20/25 56
Jointown Pharmaceutical (600998.SS, NR) - Operation Score:
18/25 56
Guangzhou Pharma (874.HK, Neutral/H) - Operation Score:
19/25 57
Nanjing Pharma (600713.SS, NR) - Operation Score: 17/25 57
China National Accord Medicine (000028.SZ, NR) - Operation
Score: 16/25 58

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关键词：HEALTHCARE Health sector Secto China