20190205【充实计划】第973期

2月第5天
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1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
推荐：《数据、模型与决策：管理科学篇(原书第13版)》
作者: (美)安德森等著
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3991314-1-1.html

2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
今天继续读：《宽客人生：从物理学家到数量金融大师》
第12章   
      在接下来的一整年里，我陷入了黑暗之中。每天我都能感到地面迎面向我扑来，就像是一个可怕的坠机梦，最终都是以惊醒而告终。从1988年10月到1989年感恩节，我在所罗门兄弟公司的一年里，是我所经历的最差的一年。对于发生在我身上的很多事情来说，我自己犯了很多错，但公司里的人也和我一样犯了同样多的错误。绝大部分时间里，我就是觉得不能胜任。我一直以为或许我最终能够调整好并适应这份工作，尽管我学到了很多东西，但我没有做到。
      我在抵押贷款研究小组的新上司是迈克·沃德曼，他从研究生院退学，在20世纪70年代就已经进入华尔街了，属于宽客里很早的一批。我很快发现，尽管迈克有着反应迅速、机敏灵活、效率极高的头脑，但与之相配的却是一种粗暴无礼的态度和一些奇怪的习惯，让人很难适应。每个周一一大早，我把桑娅送到幼儿园后，就赶紧去参加我们抵押贷款小组的早间例会。在这个会上，迈克会带着大家讨论所有手头上的建模项目。我们每个人都带着自己的早餐去参会。在会议开头的时候，迈克会花几分钟时间在他切开的每半个百吉饼里各挖出一个圆形城壕样的凹槽，把面包芯扔掉，剩下空出来的半个百吉饼面包壳，可以在里面涂抹黄油或是果酱。这种操作手法让人看起来非常恐怖。一天早上小组里另一位同事问他：“这样吃起来味道会好一点吗？”这个问题让我印象深刻。
      我作为迈克的助手，主要负责利率可调整抵押贷款（简称ARMs）方面的研究。当我进入公司的时候，我对这一领域知之甚少。我从来没有接受过抵押贷款市场的正规教育，突然进入这个领域，还要领导那些比我更熟悉这个领域的人，所以我开始阅读所罗门兄弟公司关于这一课题的研究论文。
      我了解到，美国的抵押贷款市场规模是非常庞大的，与国债市场规模相当。在个人层面，遍布全国的储蓄银行向房屋所有者贷款，房屋所有人需要这些贷款来满足购房需求。作为交换，房屋所有人与银行签合同，约定每月分期偿付等额的贷款利息和本金，用15年或30年的时间还完全部贷款。ARMs就是利率可调整的抵押款，比如每隔6个月调整一次，根据某个约定的公式与短期国债利率做出大致同步的调整，或者上浮或者下调。相应地，每隔6个月，房屋所有人每月的还款金额也要做出调整。
       ARMs有着各种各样的附加技巧。它们通常在第一年里提供一个较低的、非常有诱惑力的利率，为银行招揽生意。在接下来的时间里，随着利率的调整，贷款利率会有一个上限即上浮的最高点，还有一个下限即下调的最低点。最终，尽管抵押贷款的名义期限可能是15年或30年，但房屋所有人可能会选择提前还贷来提前终止贷款合同。如果利率已经大幅下降，有其他银行提供贷款利率更低的抵押贷款，贷款人这么做就是非常划算的。
       借钱给房屋所有人的银行拥有这笔抵押贷款，也就是拥有对房屋所有人未来每月支付的要求权。银行会定期将所拥有的抵押贷款转手卖给吉利美（GNMA）、房地美（FNMA）和房利美（FHLMC），这些都是政府下属机构，充当金融中介的角色，将大量相似但并不相同的抵押贷款汇聚在一起，并将其转化为更加标准化的证券产品。然后它们把这些标准化的证券产品再次销售给大型投资者，如共同基金、养老基金、保险公司、对冲基金等类似机构，它们需求的是有利息收入的投资。这种资产获得、汇聚成资产池、标准化、然后出售的流程解放了储蓄银行，为它们提供了流动性，以便它们能够发放更多贷款。结果就是美国拥有自主产权住房的居民比例比世界上任何地方都要高。
       尽管只要具备高中数学知识，再细心一点就能算出如果用15年的时间还清贷款，每个月应该还多少钱，但抵押贷款是非常复杂的。这种简单的计算只是个开始。关于利率可调整抵押贷款池的所有事情，如利率支付、本金偿还等，都随着未来利率水平高低而变化，因此，每个ARMs其实都是一个支付随基准利率变化的复杂期权。
       为了估计出一个抵押贷款池的到底是价值多少，你必须依靠一个关于未来利率水平的模型，这种模型事实上有点像我以前研究的布莱克-德曼-托伊模型。然后你要利用这个模型所生成的上千种利率情景，对结果求平均，从而模拟出贷款池未来的现金流。你要尽可能真实地表示出长期和短期利率的未来变化，然后对于每个未来的情景，都要计算出对于浮动的利率可调整贷款来说，一个贷款人未来每月还款额的变化值。你还要根据以往的经验，试着估计出每种情形下房屋所有人在利率变化后，提前还贷的可能性，因为这种提前还贷行为也会改变贷款池的现金流。这种蒙特卡罗模拟模型的计算结果就是抵押贷款池的现值。
       抵押贷款估值模型涉及专业人士假设出的收益率曲线的移动及房屋所有人如何对此做出反应，但这些假设都没有得到过很好的检验。如果房屋所有人获得了抵押贷款池的金融支持，那么即使是房屋所有人的邮政编码都非常重要。因为根据社会经济学分类，某些区域的人会比其他区域的人具有更强烈的提前还款倾向。我听说有的投资者真的自己跑去做调查，问问所投资的抵押贷款池提供金融支持社区的情况。与物理学的严谨性和可预见性相比或与布莱克-斯科尔斯公式的简约相比，抵押贷款估值非常令人反感。曾经有一次我将这种观点与斯蒂芬·罗斯交流，他拥有自己的投资公司——Roll&Ross资产管理公司，专门从事抵押贷款业务。他反驳道：“无论何时我看到投资领域里有些复杂和令人困惑的事情时，我就看到了凭借我的聪明而能获得超额收益的机会了。”
       这是一个很好的回答，也可能就是事实，但我还是觉得抵押贷款对我毫无吸引力。布莱克-斯科尔斯公式干净、简洁，就像是有关氢原子的理论一样。抵押贷款建模则复杂棘手，我们对其只能近似地模糊计算，这更像是试图解释出铀同位素U238能量层级的结构。我更习惯干净、利落的问题，但抵押贷款是我签了合同要来研究的。
……

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
         所罗门兄弟公司!查了一下资料,根据《说谎者的扑克牌》所述，是从1986年开始走下坡路的。作者是1988年进入此公司，并在其中供职一年。当然不是愉快的一年，更不会是轻松的一年。
      所公司是一间专家做债券的公司，那么次级债危机肯定与其关系很大！
      债务是固定收益证券，我一直感觉没有什么暴富的机会，所以从未关注过。在CFA的学习过程中，也没有做为重点进行研究，只是一带而过。从作者的描述来看并不简单。固定收益证券也可以做的非常复杂。那么复杂的背后是什么样的简单逻辑呢？
     今天是大年初一，祝大家春节快乐！
……

单词挑战第2月第24天
Poker 拨火铁棒; 纸牌; 扑克; 戳火的人;
Mrs Malone took up the poker and stirred at the little fire burning beside her.
We're not talking a murder here; we're talking poker machines or gambling— things that are misdemeanors in most states.
1.背单词1个-O
2.飞鸟式36个-O
3.Code Practices 1 hr -X
4.论坛收集资料30分钟*-O
5.Cloud Zhuang45minutes-O

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充实每一天 发表于 2019-2-5 07:03
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充实每一天 发表于 2019-2-5 07:03
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签到打卡第一天~
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感想：新年里也不能懈怠！需要继续努力！

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Invest Like a Guru – How to generate higher returns at reduced risk with value investing 2017(Charlie Tian)
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6755810-1-1.html (Page 83-102)
Buy Good Companies at Fair Prices

阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
If you buy a good company, there is no risk of permanent loss of capital as long as its business continues to perform well and the company’s value keeps growing. But any excess payment above the fair price will eat into your returns.
Can properly be criticized for merely clucking about nose-bleed valuations during the Bubble rather than acting on my views. Though I said at the time that certain of the stocks we held were priced ahead of themselves, I underestimated just how severe the overvaluation was. I talked when I should have walked. Therefore, satisfactory returns can only be achieved if stocks are bought at reasonable prices.
What kind of valuation is fair? There are many ways to evaluate Here, I will focus on the two most common methods: the discounted cash flow model (DCF) and price/earnings (P/E) ratio. Both have limitations and cannot be applied to every situation, but both work quite well for the good companies we want to buy. They are ultimately equivalent in assessing the fair values of businesses.
It’s helpful to have the intrinsic value and the margin of safety for the stocks you are interested in, but investors need to be aware of the limitations of the DCF model. The DCF model is attempting to predict the future performance of the business. Therefore, the business needs to be predictable. The companies that have steadier growth are more predictable than those with fluctuating earnings. These companies are usually ranked highly with GuruFocus’s (https://www.gurufocus.com/new_index/)Business Predictability Rank. The calculation results for those companies are more reliable. The DCF model is not applicable to the companies that have large fluctuations with business performance. The model also does not apply to situations such as asset plays, turnarounds, or cyclicals. For the companies that have predictable earnings, the assumptions on the calculation parameters can drastically affect the results. The parameters need to be carefully chosen to reflect the real performances of the companies. Next, I discuss the impact of each parameter on the calculation of intrinsic value and how they should be selected in the calculation.
In GuruFocus’s DCF calculator, we assume that in the next ten years a company will grow as fast as it did in the previous ten years. But this will most likely overestimate the growth of the company, especially if the company was growing quickly. Applying a 20 percent growth rate cap reduces overestimation. For example, Priceline averaged 40 percent per year in EPS growth over the past ten years. But for the past five years, the growth rate slowed to about 25 percent. It seems reasonable to assume that it will grow at about 20 percent per year in the next ten years. For the terminal growth stage, the growth rate of 4 percent per year is probably too low for companies like Priceline. This may underestimate its intrinsic value; 4 percent per year is slightly higher than the long-term inflation rate. Obviously, at a higher growth rate, the stock is worth more. If a company grows at 25 percent per year for the first ten years, then grows 4 percent for the next ten, its stock is worth about 30 times its earnings, as we can see from the table. This coincides with Peter Lynch’s rule of thumb that a fair P/E ratio for a company is roughly its growth rate. Of course, the fair value calculation result is affected by the discount rate. If the discount rate is 12 percent instead of 15 percent, the values move higher and Lynch’s rule of thumb would seem conservative. During Lynch’s years at Fidelity, the interest rate was in double digits. The higher discount rate was justified.
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Most of us don’t have the money as that of Buffett that We just need to be patient and wait for opportunities. But what is the fair price to pay? A fair price is when you can still get above-market-average returns over the long term through the investment. With a fair price, you don’t get additional returns from the closure of the gap between the price and the intrinsic value. Your returns are solely from the growth of the intrinsic value of the company. With the good company you are buying, the company is able to grow its value faster than the market average and you as a shareholder are rewarded. Still, buying good companies at fair prices is far better than buying fair companies at good prices. You don’t want to overpay, even for a good company. Remember the examples of Wal-Mart and Coca-Cola? If you pay too much, the closure of the price and intrinsic value works against you even when the company is growing its value faster than the market average.
DCF model and fair P/E that makes stock valuation look like rocket science the formula itself is simple and the calculator is readily available online. The key is to choose which parameters to use, and that requires a full understanding of the underlying business. Without carefully choosing the parameters, there is no point in performing a DCF calculation.
There are many ways to evaluate a business. DCF calculation is just one, and it is only applicable to a very small subset of companies that have predictable revenue and earnings. The point of DCF or any other calculation is to provide a rough idea of where the right price rests for the stock. Always leave yourself a margin of safety. At times, you will not be able to find any stocks of the good companies worth buying. It is time to get prepared and wait for the opportunities to be presented by the market. And don’t forget, before doing any calculation, investors should always look at the company’s business and answer one question: Is this the good company we want to buy? Buy only good companies and buy them at reasonable prices only.

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充实每一天 发表于 2019-2-5 07:03
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