[财经英语角区] 中国土地销售放缓加剧 [推广有奖]

Land sales slowed sharply in China last year, according to industry reports that highlight the deepening woes of debt-laden local gov ernments that depend on land auctions for vital revenue.

行业报告显示，去年中国土地销售大幅放缓。报告强调，债台高筑的地方政府面临的麻烦越来越严重。土地拍卖是地方政府极为重要的收入来源。

While the falling sales are still far from reaching crisis point, analysts say, authorities are under mounting pressure to choose between costly help for the worst-hit cities and an unpalatable relaxation of its policies aimed at preventing a dangerous property bubble.

分析师们指出，尽管销售额的下滑远未达到触发危机的程度，但是，到底是不惜代价向遭受最沉重打击的城市伸出援手，还是不顾民怨放松抑制楼市泡沫的政策——在这个两难的选择上，有关部门面临的压力与日俱增。

Nearly 900 land auctions failed in 2011, about three times more than in 2010, Centaline, a property company, said. At the same time, government revenues from land sales fell 13 per cent in 130 big cities to Rmb1,900bn ($300bn), accor ding to the China Index Academy, a property research group.

房地产经纪公司中原地产(Centaline)表示，2011年有近900宗土地流标流拍，约是2010年的3倍。另一方面，根据房地产研究机构中国指数研究院(China Index Academy)的数据，130个大城市的政府土地销售收入同比减少了13%，至1.9万亿元人民币（合3000亿美元）。

Official data on how the land market performed in 2011 will not be published until later this month, but the industry numbers leave little doubt of the downturn since 2010, when land sales surged 70 per cent.

关于2011年土地市场表现的官方数据要到本月晚些时候才会公布。但根据房地产行业给出的数据，几乎可以认定，土地市场在2010年后就一路下滑。2010年，中国土地销售额飙升了70%。

Although weaker sales were expected as a consequence of the government’s campaign to cool the once-bubbly property market, the deterioration appears to have been sudden, accelerating at the end of the year.

为了给曾经充满泡沫的楼市降温，中国政府出台了一系列举措。尽管人们已经料到这些举措会导致土地销售下滑，但下滑的速度似乎太过突然，去年年底时下滑出现加速。

Centaline noted that a third of the failed auctions – when bids either did not materialise or were too low – occurred in November and December. Huang Yu, vice-president of the China Index Academy, told state media that the national land market was entering a “deep freeze”.

中原地产指出，去年11月和12月，有三分之一的土地拍卖流标或流拍。中国指数研究院副院长黄瑜向官方媒体表示，全国的土地市场正进入深度冰冻期。

The failed auctions have been a nationwide phenomenon. Guangzhou, a booming metropolis near Hong Kong, has fared particularly poorly, suffering multiple failed sales since November. Shanghai, China’s aspiring financial centre, also att rac ted no buyers at one auction last month.

土地拍卖流标流拍已成为一种全国性现象。邻近香港的繁荣都市广州，土地拍卖市场尤为低迷，自11月以来已有多宗土地交易流标流拍。而在中国雄心勃勃的金融中心上海，上月也有一宗土地拍卖无人问津。

Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, has said Beijing will not relax its property market clampdown until prices have returned to reasonable levels. Prices have started to edge down in recent months, but analysts think the correction will have to intensify before the government eases its curbs, which include limits on the num ber of homes people can buy.

中国总理温家宝表示，北京方面不会放松对楼市的调控力度，直到房价回归合理水平为止。最近几个月，房价已开始微跌，不过分析师们认为，除非房价回调幅度加大，否则政府不会放松调控（包括对居民可购房屋数量作出限制）力度。

The slowdown comes at an uncomfortable time for China’s local governments, hitting them just as the mountain of debt that they racked up over the past few years starts to come due.

对地方政府来说，这波土地销售放缓恰好出现在它们处境艰难的时期，因为它们在过去数年间累积的大量债务正开始陆续到期。

“If this continues, it will be a major blow to the financial situation of the local governments,” said Ran Tao, an economic professor at Renmin University in Beijing. “They have become increasingly reliant on land sales for financing.”

“如果这种现象持续下去，将对地方政府的财政状况造成严重打击。”中国人民大学经济学教授陶然说，“地方政府越来越仰仗土地销售来获得资金。”

Local governments owed Rmb10,700bn at the end of 2010, and 53 per cent of that must be paid back before the end of next year, accor ding to the national audit office. Analysts have said the debt load is manageable but the shortfall in land revenues will make life more difficult for local governments.

根据国家审计署的数据，截至2010年底，地方政府债务总额为10.7万亿元人民币，其中53%须在明年年底前偿还。分析师们表示，这一债务规模仍在可控范围内，但土地销售收入的缺口将使地方政府的日子变得更加艰难。

Guan Qingyou, a resear cher at Qinghua University, calculates that land sales formed 74 per cent of local governments’ revenue base in 2010, up from 10 per cent in the late 1990s. The central government has been implementing tax reforms to give provinces and municipalities extra revenue channels, but direct transfer payments will be needed to plug most of the hole for the time being.

清华大学研究员管清友估算，2010年土地销售收入在地方政府的收入基础中占到74%，上世纪90年代末期时，这一比例仅为10%。为拓宽各省市政府的收入渠道，中央政府一直在实施税制改革，但眼下若想大致堵上这个漏洞，就必须运用直接转移支付。

As for the maturing loans, Chinese economists have suggested local governments be allowed to roll over some of their debt to make the repayment burden more manageable. The risk, however, is this simply delays the day of reckoning.

对于即将到期的贷款，中国经济学家建议，应允许地方政府延期偿还部分债务，以使它们的偿债负担更加可控。但问题是，这么做只是推迟了“最终清算日”的到来。

In the meantime, to try to revive land auctions, local governments have started to cut prices and break plots into smaller pieces.

与此同时，为了提振土地拍卖市场，地方政府已开始下调土地价格，并将大幅地块分解成小幅地块出售。

Some of their actions have run contrary to Beijing’s cornerstone policy of building up more public housing for poorer citizens. The China Real Estate Inf or mation Corporation noted that several municipalities had suspended a requirement that developers buying land must also build a certain amount of affordable housing on it.

地方政府的某些行为与中央政府为低收入群体建造更多公共住房的基础性政策背道而驰。中国房产信息集团(China Real Estate Inf or mation Corporation)指出，中央政府要求开发商必须在所购地块上建造一定数量的廉价房，而一些市级政府已暂时搁置了这一规定。

译者/何黎