[学科前沿] The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model [推广有奖]

Abstract
The Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is the part of the MIT Integrated Global
Systems Model (IGSM) that represents the human systems. EPPA is a recursive-dynamic multi-regional
general equilibrium model of the world economy, which is built on the GTAP dataset and additional data for
the greenhouse gas and urban gas emissions. It is designed to develop projections of economic growth and
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse related gases and aerosols. The main purpose of this report is to
provide documentation of a new version of EPPA, EPPA version 4. In comparison with EPPA3, it includes
greater regional and sectoral detail, a wider range of advanced energy supply technologies, improved
capability to represent a variety of different and more realistic climate policies, and enhanced treatment of
physical stocks and flows of energy, emissions, and land use to facilitate linkage with the earth system
components of the IGSM. Reconsideration of important parameters and assumptions led to some revisions in
reference projections of GDP and greenhouse gas emissions. In EPPA4 the global economy grows by 12.5
times from 2000 to 2100 (2.5%/yr) compared with an increase of 10.7 times (2.4%/yr) in EPPA3. This is one
of the important revisions that led to an increase in CO2 emissions to 25.7 GtC in 2100, up from 23 GtC in
2100 projected by EPPA3. There is considerable uncertainty in such projections because of uncertainty in
various driving forces. To illustrate this uncertainty we consider scenarios where the global GDP grows
0.5% faster (slower) than the reference rate, and these scenarios result in CO2 emissions in 2100 of 34 (17)
GtC. A sample greenhouse gas policy scenario that puts the world economy on a path toward stabilization of
atmospheric CO2 at 550 ppmv is also simulated to illustrate the response of EPPA4 to a policy constraint.

MIT EPPA model version 4.pdf (1.75 MB, 需要: 5 个论坛币)

2012-2-28 17:00:09 上传

The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model
需要: 5 个论坛币  [购买]