恒生银行：环球市场分析(英文) 03.12   [推广有奖]

恒生银行：环球市场分析

(英文) 03.12 13页

98982.pdf (216.65 KB, 需要: 3 个论坛币)

Global FX
􀂗 Volatility returned to the currency market in a big way, with the Japanese yen becoming the
biggest gainer as a wave of risk aversion swept through global financial markets, triggering
mass liquidation of carry trades. The yen surged 6% against both the US dollar and the euro,
close to 8% against the British pound and over 9% versus the New Zealand dollar in a matter of
days in early March.
Interest Rates
􀂗 US interest rates plunged to their lowest levels in more than two months as turmoil in global
equity markets, deepening trouble in the US sub-prime mortgage sector and recession fears led
to strong safe haven demand for US Treasuries.
Global Economics
􀂗 Former US Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said that there was a one-third possibility of a US
recession this year. His prediction contrasted with the Fed’s view of steady economic growth in
2007. Who is right and who is wrong?
􀂗 The European Central Bank raised interest rates by a quarter-point to a five-year high of 3.75%
at its latest meeting on March 8. At the post meeting press conference, ECB President Jean-
Claude Trichet sounded less hawkish than expected, signaling that another rate hike is not
imminent. Trichet said that current interest rates in the euro zone were “moderate” rather than
“low” and omitted the word vigilance in the prepared statement. However, the central bank
upgraded its growth forecast and left the door open for further rises by noting that monetary
policy was still accommodative.
􀂗 The Japanese economy grew at a faster pace in the fourth quarter of 2006 than initially
estimated, bolstered by an upward revision in business investment. Entered into 2007, other
reports, such as employment and consumption, also showed encouraging results. On price
front, the mostly watched core consumer prices reported muted growth while producer price
growth also eased, signaling that the Bank of Japan may have little ground of pursuing further
tightening in spite of strong economic growth.