深度研究报告—美国婴儿潮一代老去对经济的影响（英文）188页   [推广有奖]

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发表机构：MGI               发表日期：June 2008

格式：PDF            语言：英语              页码：188

Table of contents
Executive Summary                                                                  9
1. The Age of Aquarius                                                           23
2. What a Long, Strange Trip It’s Ben                                  35
3. Mo ney Can’t Buy Me Love                                              57
4. You Can’t Always Get What You Want                            79
5. Stairway to Heaven                                                           101
Appendixes
A. M acroeconomic Context                                                  133
B. Technical Notes                                                                151
Bibliography                                                                           181

Preface

Talkin’ ’Bout My Generation: The Economic Impact of Aging Baby Boomers is the
result of a yearlong study by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) in part nership
with McKinsey ’s Consumer Insight Practice. The work builds on previous MGI
work on the impact of demographics on national economies, as well as MGI’s
work on shifting patterns of consumer demand in the world. This study presents
new data and analysis on how the Baby Bomers, one of the largest US birt h
cohort s relative to population in the last century, will shape the US economy over
the coming decades as they age and retire.
In November 2007, we, along with our colleagues David Court and John E. Forsyth,
published an art icle “Serving Aging Baby Bomers” in The McKinsey Quarterly,
highlighting results of this research from the perspective of businesses seeking
to serve an aging population of consumers. In that piece we focused on
the significant opportu nities as well as the challenges this demographic shift
presents for companies serving aging consumers. In this report , we take a different
perspective. Here, we focus on the question of what impact the aging
of the Bomers will have on the overall US economy, and what actions policy
makers and business leaders must begin to take now to minimize the risks to
the economy posed by this demographic transition.
David Court , a McKinsey director in Dallas and global knowledge leader for the
Consumer Insight Practice; Eric Beinhocker, a senior fellow with MGI in London; and
John Forsyth, an expert principal with the Consumer Insight Practice in Stamfor d,Connecticut , wor ked closely with me to pro vide over all leader ship on both stages
of this pro ject. The pro ject te am for this re port was managed by Ezra Gre nber g,
an expert with MG I in Washingto n, DC, who also led the economic analysis and
modeling effort s, and it included Jonathan Ablett of the Nort h Amer ican Knowledge
Center ; Suru chi Shukla, a McKinsey consultant fro m the Asia Hou se office in
Frankfurt ; Geo ffrey Gree ne, an exter nal adviser to MG I on econometr ic modeling;
and Nell Hender son, an MG I senior editor in Washingto n, DC.
This report built upon our earlier work. That project team was managed first by
Vanessa Freman, a consultant in McKinsey ’s London office and then by John
Chao, a consultant from McKinsey ’s Houston office. The market research was
led by Lora Chajka-Cadin, an expert with McKinsey ’s Consumer Insight Practice
in Boston. We were supporte d by a superb team that included Vivek Banerji,
Matthew Klusas, Mette Lykke, Jeongyeon Shim, and Ned Welch.
We also re ceived valuable input and guidance fro m a number of senior McKinsey
part ner s who committe d their time to ser ve on a steer ing committee to re view the
wor k. They include Blair Crawfor d, Mart in Elling, Dave Elzinga, Bet sy Holden, David
Hunt, John McPher son, Michael Patsalos-Fox, Tim Welsh, and Michael Zea.
Our team benefited substantially from interviews and discussions with a number
of expert s, including Alicia Munnell and Anthony Webb of the Center for Retirement
Research at Boston College, and Mart in Neil Baily of the Brokings Institution.
Finally, we would like to thank several members of MGI’s professional staff who
contributed their effort s to this project: Tim Beacom, for his research assistance;
Rebeca Robboy , MGI’s external relations manager; and Deadra Henderson,
our practice administrator. We also thank Anthony Lee of the Nort h America
Financial Services Practice, and the superb staffs of McKinsey ’s Nort h American
Knowledge
Center, the McKinsey Knowledge Center in India, and the production
and technical services of the Firm.
Our goal with this and other MGI report s is to provide business leaders, policy
makers, and other decision makers with facts and insights that lead to better
understanding of key trends in the global economy. As with all MGI projects, this
research is independent and was not commissioned or sponsored in any way by
any business, government, or other institution.
Diana Farre ll
Director, McKinsey Global Institute
June 2008
San Francisco