本报告由世界银行的两位学者Roy Katayama和Divyanshi Wadhwa发布。
报告摘要:
2015年,全世界极度贫困人口总数为7.36亿,其中半数(3.68亿)集中在五个国家,它们是(按极度贫困人口从多到少排列)印度、尼日利亚、刚果民主共和国、埃塞俄比亚以及孟加拉国。这五国恰巧也是南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲地区人口最多的国家——两地区贫困人口数量(6.29亿)占全世界贫困人口总数85%。因此,要在实现到2030年全球极度贫困人口(日均生活费低于1.90美元的人口)占比降至3%以下这一全球目标方面持续取得显著进展,大幅减少这五国的贫困人口将至关重要。
但是,我们不能对贫困率较高的其它若干国家视而不见。随着对这五国到2030年的贫困人口所作预测的结果公布,其所取得的减贫成果可能并不均衡(参见图2)。如果根据各国以往贫困人口平均增长率(过去十年间地区平均增长率)进行预测,则印度和孟加拉国到2030年的极度贫困人口接近零,但尼日利亚、刚果民主共和国、尼日利亚三国的极端贫困人口仍居高不下。五国不均衡的进展是全球不均衡进展的缩影。当然,全世界(撒哈拉以南非洲地区除外)基本消除极度贫困现象这一成果并不能描绘出一幅无贫困世界画面。正如《2018贫困与共享繁荣》报告所强调,我们应当跳出全球贫困率降至3%以下这一焦点,努力确保所有国家和全体民众能够共享经济发展红利。
Roy Katayama is a Senior Economist in the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Global Practice. He joined the World Bank in 2006 and has led analytical work on poverty and inequality, welfare impact of shocks, targeting of social safety nets, geospatial analysis of development, and systematic country diagnostics. He has extensive experience working in Sub-Saharan Africa, and his current work focuses on the design of data collection methods suitable for fragile settings, iterative beneficiary monitoring, and statistical capacity building. Prior to joining the World Bank, he worked for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Agency for International Development. Roy holds a MPA in International Development (MPA/ID) from Harvard University.
Divyanshi Wadhwa is a Junior Data Scientist with the Development Data Group at the World Bank and works on the World Development Indicators database. Prior to joining the Bank, Divyanshi worked as a Research Assistant at an international development think tank, Center for Global Development (CGD) in Washington DC. During her time at CGD, she focused her research on private sector development and illicit financial flows and helped launch a data visualization venture. An Indian national, Divyanshi holds a BA in Political Science from the University of Delhi, India and a Master’s in Public Policy from Georgetown University.