报告名称：CRRC Alert(01766.HK)Access China conference highlights 2016
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-13
研究机构：德意志银行股份有限公司
股票名称：中国中车
股票代码：01766,601766
页数：1
简介：Low possibility of a 30% decline in railway equipment spending in 2016
CRRC foresees the low possibility of there being a reported Rmb90bn spending on railway equipment in 2016 (source: Caixing). Its view could be supported mainly by the recent draft plan on the railway industry for 2016-2020, which guided for a total annual average railway FAI of Rmb700-800bn. At this high level, Rmb90bn in equipment spending is unlikely, based on the experience of recent years. However, a conservative investment plan released by CRC at the beginning of each year is possible. Furthermore, the Rmb90bn may not include the first installment for EMUs.
Overseas orders
The value of new overseas contracts was USD5bn+ in 2015, which was lower than the 2014 level of USD6.6bn, constituting a failure to meet the annual target of USD7.5bn. According to CRRC’s management, this was due mainly to longer-than-expected negotiations over part of a large order, which might be settled before early February 2016. For this year, the target value of new contracts is likely to beat the 2015 original target (USD7.5bn).
Stable rolling stock demand in 2016
CRRC agrees mostly on flat growth in new demand for high-speed trains and locomotives in 2016. The high level of demand for high-speed trains derives from solid passenger traffic growth. It expects the total delivery of EMUs in 2016 to remain at a level similar to that in 2015. Support for demand for stable locomotives (c.800 units annually) will be equally contributed to by new conventional lines and replacement demand. CRRC estimates that new orders for metro cars will be 6,000-7,000 units in 2016 vs. 6,000+ in 2015 and 4,000+ in 2014.
Synergy from CSR/CNR merger
In 2015, the largest synergy after the merger came from lower financial costs due to greater internal financing ability. It has already witnessed a rising ASP in domestic urban rail transit due to reduced competition. The cost saving effect for 2016 has not yet been quantified, but total 2016 capex should decline yoy.
Comment on latest acquisition of China United Insurance (13.06% stakes)
CRRC is trying to diversify its asset allocation and step forward in the financial industry. This company may bring synergy to CRRC for pursuing suitable PPP projects in the future. The implied valuation of 2.5x P/B for the acquisition is higher than the industry average of 2.2x for listed insurance companies, which could be justified by its higher profitability (benefiting from its higher exposure to better margins in agricultural insurance) and the granting of a seat on the board.
下载地址：CRRC Alert(01766.HK)Access China conference highlights 2016
