报告名称：ENN Energy Alert(02688.HK)Access China conference highlights 2016
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-13
研究机构：德意志银行股份有限公司
股票名称：新奥能源
股票代码：02688
页数：1
简介：ENN Energy attended our dbAccess China Conference today and we summarise below our key takeaways:
Gas price cut: According to management, 51 cities have completed pass-through, and the rest may take another few months to complete. Management suggests the volume impact of the gas tariff cut is yet to be reflected, and believes an economic recovery is more important to gas demand. The dollar margin may slightly expand with a delayed effect, but should remain stable at Rmb0.75-0.76/cm in the next few years.
City-gas sales: Despite a slight improvement in gas consumption in Nov-Dec 2015 with better winter heating demand, full-year 2015 gas sales fall at the lower end of the company target of 10-15% growth. For 2016, management expects gas sales to be slightly better than in 2015, up at least 10% yoy, and the segment trend should be similar to that in 2015: +15-20% in residential, +5-6% in C&I and +10-20% in vehicles. Amid the economic downturn, management expects fewer new C&I connections and its focus in 2016 should be on coal-to-gas and gasoline-to-gas conversion.
Connections: In 2016, ENN expects a similar scale of new household connections (2015E: 1.5-1.6m). GPM for connections is likely to drop to c.60% from 63% in 2015, with 30-35% new connections coming from old buildings, according to management.
LNG stations: Management suggests the utilization of the company’s LNG stations is improving with more than 30% volume growth recorded in 2015. The company targets 40% volume growth this year, and expects to achieve breakeven at the bottom line.
North American business: ENN estimates the net loss of its North America gas station business in 2015 at c.USD25m, and continues to expect it to narrow to less than USD20m in 2016. With the local diesel price slumping to at par with LNG, management sees difficulties in acquiring new customers. The company will respond by leveraging the renewed tax rebate of USD50cents per gallon of natural gas consumption to attract new customers.
FX debt exposure: ENN has reduced USD-denominated debt exposure from 80% by 1H15 to 60% by end-2015. The remainder comprises USD convertible bonds that are due to expire by 2018/2021. Management believes that a loss would be limited as it claims that most of the CB holders are likely to convert, given the strike price is much lower than the trading price.

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