报告名称：Angel Yeast(600298)2015e earnings growth secured; reiterate BUY
报告类型：点评报告
报告日期：2016-01-20
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：安琪酵母
股票代码：600298
页数：4
简介：2015e earnings to grow 70~100% YoY
Angel preannounced its 2015e earnings: net profit attributable to shareholders would grow 70~100% YoY toRmb249~294mn. Based on such earnings growth, its 4Q15e net profit would grow 132~322% YoY to Rmb55~100mn.Based on our 2015e profit forecast of Rmb4.25bn, its 2015e net margin should be 5.9~6.9%.
Trends to watch
High growth in 2015e earnings to dispel short-term concerns. The recent market volatility caused investors toswitch towards companies with robust fundamentals and visible earnings growth. Angel’s earnings preannouncementdispelled short-term concerns in the market; we believe Angel is likely to meet or even beat our net profit forecast ofRmb267mn (+81.3%) in 2015, mainly because: 1) its 4Q15 revenue growth will likely return to ~20% as impacts of theoverhaul and Yili plant’s production shutdown dissipated; 2) selling and financial expense ratios would keep falling; 3)its sugar factory’s significant loss reduction would be recognized in 4Q15.
Fundamentals to keep improving in 2016. Even if Angel’s 2015e earnings growth hits the 100% ceiling in itspreannouncement, its net margin would be 15% growth driven by overseas yeast business and downstream YE business; 2) molasses price is unlikely torise in 2016, implying less cost pressure; 3) it enjoys price hike potential due to tightened domestic yeast capacity; grossmargins of overseas yeast business and downstream YE business are low may improve over the long term; 4) its capexhas passed the peak; depreciation and financial expense ratios would gradually fall; 5) selling expenses would fallthanks to a strategic shift; 6) effective tax rate would fall thanks to optimized profit distribution between subsidiariesand the parent company. These factors would drive Angel’s profit margin towards the reasonable level at ~10%.
Safe valuation; reiterate BUY. Angel enjoys high revenue & earnings growth and good fundamentals in thecondiment or even the entire food sector. The stock is trading at ~25x P/E, much lower than its historical average andthe average valuation of condiment peers. Reiterate BUY. Investors may add exposure to Angel when opportunities rise.
Valuation and recommendationKeep 2015/16e revenue at Rmb4.25bn/4.97bn and net profit attributable to shareholders at Rmb267mn/368mn.Maintain BUY and TP of Rmb39.07.
Risks
Growth of export and YE businesses misses expectations; slower-than-expected capacity expansion; volatility in rawmaterial prices; food safety issues.

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