报告名称：Yili Industrial Group (600887) Low expectations priced in; outstanding long-term
报告类型：点评报告
报告日期：2016-01-28
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：伊利股份
股票代码：600887
页数：4
简介：FY15 revenue and net profit forecasted to rise 9.4% and 4.8% YoY
Yili’s 2015e results imply 10.6%/20.6% YoY growth for revenue/net profit in 4Q15, as Yili continued to gain marketshare aggressively. The rapid net profit growth is attributable to 1) a low base for one-off factors in 4Q14; 2) still intensecompetition in 4Q15 and no significant reduction in Yili’s promotions and expenses.
Trends to watch
Sector unlikely to improve in the near term; wait for an inflection point in 2016. The dairy sector’s demandgrowth is trending down and we expect it to remain in single-digits in 2016. Milk prices bottomed but show no signs ofa rebound in the near term. In 2016, the sector may still grow but price wars are unlikely to weaken. As a result, majorplayers’ promotions and expenses will likely remain active. We expect sector revenue growth to be driven by salesvolume rises and structural improvements in 2016, but ASP may remain in the downtrend.
Yili enjoys visible advantages amid increasing corporate divergence. The differences in integrated corporatestrength may be amplified amid sector slowdown and Yili enjoys clear competitive strength with its revenue likely to seeabove-average & high-single-digit growth and its market share continuing expanding. In addition, Yili’s gross marginexpansion is driven by a shift towards high-end products (to focus on high-end UHT milk, normal-/low-temperatureyogurt and lactobacillus beverage in 2016) and cost advantage from deployment in overseas supply chain. We applaudYili’s strategy to seize market share amid a changing sector landscape and expect its selling expense ratio to continuerising in 2016. Net profit growth will likely stay largely in line with revenue and be in the mid-/high-single digits.
Current share price implies low growth expectations. Despite the slowing growth, Yili is consolidating itsleadership. Based on our mid/high-single digit growth forecasts for 2016~17e net profit, Yili is trading at 17x/16x P/E,close to the historical bottom and more than 1x standard deviation below the average valuation over the past five years.Meanwhile, the current share price implies merely 1% long-term EBIT growth based on the DCF model, which ispessimistic for an above-average player in a growing sector. Despite the falling average valuation amid marketfluctuations, we still suggest paying attention to consumer goods leaders with superior integrated strength andlong-term value as they would rebound first when the sector reaches an inflection point.
Valuation and recommendation
We cut 2015/16e revenue by 0.4%/2.0% to Rmb59.6bn/63.9bn and trim net profit by 0.8%/9.6% to Rmb4.3bn/4.7bnor EPS of Rmb0.71/0.76. We cut our DCF-based TP by 12% to Rmb18.48. Maintain BUY.
Risks
Weak demand; intensifying competition; food safety issues.

下载地址：Yili Industrial Group (600887) Low expectations priced in; outstanding long-term