报告名称：Yasha Decoration (002375) Earnings disappointing; few catalysts in near term
报告类型：点评报告
报告日期：2016-01-28
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：亚厦股份
股票代码：002375
页数：4
简介：Action
Yasha amended its guidance on 2015 net profit to Rmb570mn~830mn (-40%~-20% YoY), below our expectation of-18% YoY and the guidance of -20%~+10% YoY made in 3Q15. Considering the sector sluggishness and the timeneeded for new businesses like internet home decoration to make profit, we expect 2016e earnings to see little upside.Cut TP by 29% to Rmb12.0 (22x 2016e P/E). Downgrade to HOLD.
Reasoning
2015 earnings missed considerably due to: 1) dropping revenue caused by inactive downstream investment,slower growth of new orders and slow progress in project construction; 2) narrowing gross margin amid intensifiedcompetition; and 3) rising expenses as Yasha expanded investment in new businesses like internet home decoration &smart home, management and innovation.
Due to destocking, real estate investment may decline further; with only a few projects started, infrastructureinvestment also faces downside pressure. Thus, public building decoration is unlikely to improve.
No visible S-T earnings from new businesses. 1) Mogu+ is now running on a trial basis and is expected to buildexperience stores in Yangtze River Delta region in 1H16; however it still takes time to ramp up. 2) Vann is also undermajor pressure due to its high correlation with the real estate industry. 3) Despite the L-T potential of Winsun’s 3Dprinting business, its promotion is progressing slowly and it will likely break even in 2016.
Earnings forecast and valuation
Considering the weak growth of traditional businesses and the little S-T earnings from new businesses, we slash2015/16e net profit by 27%/19% to Rmb620mn (-40% YoY)/Rmb730mn (+18% YoY), or EPS ofRmb0.46/Rmb0.55; give 2017e net profit of Rmb890mn or EPS of Rmb0.67 (+22% YoY). The stock price has droppedfrom its peak in June 2015 by 69% and closed at the lowest since April 2013. It now trades at 19.3x 2016e P/E, at thelower end of sector range but higher than that of Gold Mantis. Considering the sluggish earnings and few catalysts, wecut TP by 29% to Rmb12.0 (22x 2016e P/E). Downgrade to HOLD.
Risks
Investment slowdown beats; slower-than-expected progress in new businesses like internet home decoration.

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