报告名称：Gome(00493.HK)Online momentum to continue in FY16;maintaining Buy
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-04-05
研究机构：德意志银行
股票名称：国美电器
股票代码：00493
页数：12
简介：Total retail strategy bears fruit; maintaining Buy
Gome delivered sound FY15 results and completed the acquisition of the nonlistedstores at the end of March 2016. FY15 earnings beat our forecasts andmarket estimates, with a notable 100%+ increase in online sales, 2.3% SSSgand a 40bp improvement in EBIT margin. For FY16, management expects EcommerceGMV to grow ~100% yoy. We believe 2016 is an investment yearand the investment in traffic, logistics and IT might bring costs up and putpressure on its margins. However, we like Gome's strategy of focusing on atotal retail model with online development while not giving up profitability. Thestock is trading at 3.9% FY17 dividend yield. Maintaining Buy.
FY15 net profit beat DBe and market on lower-than-expected opex
Core net profit rose 20% yoy to RMB1.4bn on a 7% increase in sales revenueto RMB65bn. For online, GMV surged 115% yoy to RMB16.5bn, with the selfoperatedsegment up 129% yoy to RMB8bn. The online net loss increased toRMB680m, while the online net loss ratio narrowed to 8.5% from 18.7% in2014, as operations were scaled up. Sales were in line with our and marketforecasts, while core net profit beat DBe by 8% on lower-than-expectedoperating expenses. Dividend payout was consistent at 40%.
An investment year in 2016 – to focus on on/offline traffic
Management believes 2016 is an investment year for Gome and plans torenovate offline stores to offer consumers a shopping experience. For online, itexpects GMV to rise ~100% yoy, driven by the total retail strategy, whichoffers consumers a full set of shopping channels. It has budgeted RMB1.5-2bnfor store renovation, new store opening in low-tier cities and an IT upgrade.We expect investment in online traffic, logistics and IT to bring costs up andput pressure on its margins.
Target price cut from HK$1.82 to HK$1.55, at 14x FY17E PE; risks
We lower our FY16/17 forecasts by 14-15% on the investment in online traffic.Our DCF (9.5% COE, 1.1 beta, 2% TGR) yields HK$1.55/share (old: HK$1.82),implying 14x 2017E PE, or 1.1x PEG. The average historical one-year forwardPE multiple is 14x. Downside risks: weaker-than-expected SSSg and failure tocontrol opex.

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