报告名称：Belle(01880.HK)Footwear business valuation cheap at 6x PE；lower TP to HK$7.30
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-11
研究机构：广发证券（香港）
股票名称：百丽国际
股票代码：01880
页数：5
简介：Footwear SSS weakens further SSS dropped further to -10.4% in 3QFY16, from -7.7% in 2QFY16. Apart from the warm weather in southern China during Nov, the slight YoY decline in ASP due to increased retail discounts also led to the fall in SSS. We believe 3QFY16 GM could decline YoY. Footwear store number increased slightly from 13,704 in 1HFY16 to 13,710 in 3QFY16.
Sportswear SSSG maintained SSSG remained at 6% in 3QFY16 (vs 6.5% in 2QFY16), led by a 50/50 contribution from ASP and volume growth. Given its inventory is still tight, we expect 3QFY16 GM to improve YoY on fewer retail discounts. The sportswear store number increased from 6,524 in 1HFY16 to 6,796 in 3QFY16.
Maintain Hold but lower TP to HK$7.30 We lower our FY16-18 net profit forecasts by 4%-6%, mainly due to lower assumptions for footwear SSS and EBIT margin. We also cut our TP from HK$8.10 to HK$7.30, based on 10.6x FY16E P/E. Amid continued sluggish consumer sentiment and weak department store sales, we see little chance of a fast recovery for the company’s footwear segment in the near term. That said, the solid SSSG and margin expansion in its sportswear segment should partly fill the profit gap left by the footwear segment in FY16. Belle’s share price has dropped 5% since its peer, Le Saunda (738 HK, Hold), released weak 3QFY16 SSSG on Dec 7. We think Belle’s share price reflects weak footwear SSS in 3QFY16. If we value Belle’s sportswear business at the sportswear sector’s 14.1x forward P/E, we estimate Belle’s footwear business is priced at just 6x FY16E on an ex-net cash basis (vs Le Saunda’s 3.5x ex-net cash FY16E P/E). Coupled with Belle’s 6% dividend yield in FY16, we see share price support at the current level.

下载地址：Belle(01880.HK)Footwear business valuation cheap at 6x PE；lower TP to HK$7.30