报告名称：COLI Alert(00688.HK)Access China conference 2016 highlights
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-12
研究机构：德意志银行
股票名称：中国海外发展
股票代码：00688
页数：1
简介：COLI attended our Access China 2016 conference. The key takeaways were:
The company said it achieved its FY sales target of HK$180bn in 2015. The sell-through rate for 2015 was stable, at c.75% throughout the year.
The sales target and sellable resources for 2016 have yet to be confirmed and will be announced in March.
Commenting on market conditions, management believes that the rise in land cost could hurt the margins of developers and hence the company has been, and will continue to be, prudent and remain disciplined on land acquisitions. The company has always maintained its approach of searching for land with higher margins.
Average unit cost of land acquired by COLI in 2015 was c.RMB4,000 psqm, which is about the same as the unit cost of its land bank. Hence, COLI is confident of delivering stable margin in the next few years.
COLI will retain its focus on Tier-1 and major Tier-2 cities for land acquisitions. With the exception of the Zibo projects, which were injected from the parent group, none of COLIˇs projects are in lower tier cities.
Managementˉs view on 2016 is neutral or slightly optimistic. Given the possibility of slower GDP growth, but due its large base, 6.5% growth is not really slow growth. Moreover, looking at the companyˇs track record, it could outperform its peers even during an economic downturn.
On pricing, management said cities such as Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, and Xiamen experienced double-digit growth in 2015. However, management said it is unlikely for such strong growth to continue. Management is expecting ASP growth in major cities in 2016 to be close to the GDP growth or disposable income growth.
As of June 2015, about 80% of COLIˇs debt is denominated in HKD/USD. Management said this ratio will be lowered by end-2015 due to the issuance of the domestic corporate bonds. Going forward, the company intends to further lower its debt exposure in HKD/USD.
Management guided COLIˇs net gearing as of end-2015 will be similar to that in 1H15. COLI is also considering gradually lifting its dividend payout ratio, but no exact timeframe can be provided at the moment.
COLI said that further asset injection from the parent group is unlikely in the short term, as CSCEC has also injected its quality asset to COLI.
Management believes there will be more loosening measures from the government, such as further lowering of the down-payment requirement. However, it might not be easy for local governments to lower land supply and this is still a major source of revenue to many local governments.

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