报告名称：China Construction Bank Alert(00939.HK)Access China conference highlights 2016
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-13
研究机构：德意志银行
股票名称：建设银行
股票代码：601939,00939
页数：1
简介：On PPOP: Management expects NIM to further decline in 2016 mainly due to re-pricing of mortgage loans at year-beginning. In 2016, the bank is likely to grow its asset base by high-single digits. On fee income, CCB expects growth to recover modestly in 2016 compared with that in 2015, driven mainly by wealth management, electronic banking and bank cards. In addition, the bank aims to maintain a stable cost-to-income ratio.
On asset quality: CCB expects asset quality to further weaken in 2016, with a modest increase in NPL ratio. In the short term, the NPL formation rate may stay elevated, but it is unlikely to further rise notably. Apart from the manufacturing and wholesale & retail sectors, CCB also saw NPL emerging in energy and steel enterprises located in Hebei and neighboring regions in the past one or two quarters. Given a rising NPL ratio, credit costs may remain at a high level. The bank has disposed about RMB70bn of NPLs in 9M15, with RMB40bn sold to AMCs (selling price at 30-40%) and RMB30bn written off from the balance sheet.
On supply side reforms: CCB expects a mild impact from the de-capacity efforts on the bank, as 1) this is likely to be a gradual process; and 2) de-capacity may benefit the leading corporates in those sectors with better margin and stronger market share, to which CCB has kept providing financing support. In recent years, CCB has been scaling back exposure to weaker corporates in overcapacity sectors, while expanding exposure to leading corporates and maintaining a relatively stable total lending balance in those sectors.
On NPL ABS, municipal bond swap and universal banking: The bank is proactively studying the feasibility of issuing ABS products with NPLs as underlying assets, once the regulator grants final approval. The issuance size will initially be limited to several billion RMB. For local government debt swap, CCB bought RMB300-400bn of municipal bonds in 9M15 with a relatively small amount of LGFV loans paid down. The bank has made solid progress in developing a universal banking franchise, with its subsidiaries collectively contributing 0.5% of earnings growth, which is already a sizeable amount given flattish earnings growth in 9M15.

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