报告名称：China Comms Construct Alert(01800.HK)Access China conference highlights 2016
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-13
研究机构：德意志银行
股票名称：中国交通建设,中国交建
股票代码：01800,601800
页数：1
简介：Outlook for new order and rail/road investment
CCC believes its 2015 new contract value target of Rmb650bn is achievable. The target for 2016 is under discussion and is likely to be higher than that of 2015. CCC expects total railway investment during 2016-2020 to be no less than the 2011-2015 level, while five-year railway infrastructure capex should rise. Highway investment should be solid, given the following: 1) an aggressive highway construction plan in Southwest China; 2) demand from regional network completion (e.g. the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region); 3) the combined transportation of rail-road and port-road; and 4) an upgrade of existing highways.
Overseas expansion should be a key catalyst in the next few years
CCC guides for a doubling of 2015 overseas revenue by 2020, indicating double-digit CAGR during this period. This growth rate should be more than double domestic sales growth. By 2020, CCC maintains the assumption that its overseas business should contribute c.40% of total revenue and c.60% of total profit (compared with 20%/30% so far). Australia, North America, Western Europe and South America are CCC’s new target markets. CCC prefers projects that meet local market demands, but are covered by the OBOR framework. These projects usually demand fewer prerequisites and higher contract values, while still enjoying favourable funding facilities.
Comment on the PPP model
Newly-signed PPP contracts came in at around Rmb80-90bn in 2015. CCC said progress on PPP projects is usually slower than that of ordinary ones due to the uncertain return outlook, a lack of financing conduits for local governments and more comp in the future.
Dredging business
CCC recently resubmitted its IPO application of the dredging business and is ready for listing when the market situation is suitable. Management does not expect a delay of the IPO to adversely affect funding of its non-dredging business since this IPO mainly serves the overseas market exploration of the dredging business. Following strong new order growth in 2015 (30%+ yoy), management guides c.15% growth in 2016 orders for the dredging business.
Capex and OCF
CCC expects total capex to decline in 2016 compared with 2015. Operating CF improved in 2015 and it is likely to further improve in 2016.

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