报告名称：Huadian Fuxin Alert(00816.HK)Access China conference highlights 2016
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-13
研究机构：德意志银行
股票名称：华电福新
股票代码：00816
页数：1
简介：Thermal
Squeezed by strong hydro output, with no major pick-up in power demand in Fujian, thermal utilization turned further south in 2H15. As a result, total thermal output retreated by c.20%. The avg coal price was c.Rmb97/ton lower, or down c.13% yoy in 11M15, with the coal price in Nov c.10% lower than the average in 11M15. Mgmt expects another c.300hrs decline in thermal utilization in 2016 if there is no improvement in power demand in Fujian.
Wind
In 2015, total wind output was up c.30% yoy. Wind curtailment deteriorated in 2H15, leading to full-year curtailment of c. 19% vs. 17.5% in 1H15. As such, the company maintained a yoy lower capacity addition target of 1-1.2GW in 2016. Regarding the recently announced wind tariff cut, mgmt is confident that it can defend the threshold project return (8%) with lower funding cost, potentially better utilization on turbine upgrade/lower curtailment and cost pass-through to turbine makers, etc.
Hydro
Thanks to the strong water inflow since 3Q15, management said hydro output was up c.10% yoy, reversing the decline in 1H15 (-24% yoy). The on-grid tariff of nearly half of Fuxin’s hydro plants was raised by Rmb2cents/kWh by the Fujian government on 1 August 2015. Mgmt advised that there is a 100MW capacity expansion plan in 2016 and potential for a further increase in hydro tariff for all operating plants.
Nuclear
Fuqing Unit 1 has resumed operations after the refueling overhaul since Oct-15, while Fuqing Unit 2 commenced commercial operations in Oct-15. Fuqing Unit 3 is scheduled to commence operations in July-Aug 2016. The on-grid tariffs of Fuqing Units 2&3 are still set at Rmb0.43/kWh, unaffected by the recent thermal tariff cut.
Financing and capex
Avg finance cost in 2014 was 6.1% and has been reduced to 5.3% by end-15. Mgmt estimates it will fall further to c.4.5% by end-16, with c.Rmb500m in potential interest cost savings. With the total debt to capital ratio kept under the 80% threshold, mgmt does not expect equity placement in the near future. Total capex for 2016 is budgeted at c.Rmb12bn, most of which is planned for wind project investment.

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