报告名称：Chalco Alert(02600.HK)Access China conference highlights 2016
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-13
研究机构：德意志银行股份有限公司
股票名称：中国铝业
股票代码：ACH,601600,02600
页数：1
简介：Mgmt notices better supply discipline across the street
Supply reform has been the major focus recently across the street with aggregated ~4mt+ capacity curtailments announced in FY2015 for aluminium industry. Even only a small portion of them belongs to permanent shut down, mgmt does notice better supply discipline as domestic players become less tolerant of losses vs. that in previous years. With less new capacity in the pipeline together with relative decent demand growth, mgmt envisions that aluminium demand/supply to improve in coming years.
Company focus - alumina business and efficiency improvement in aluminium segment
With Chalco's advantage in self-owned bauxite, the company will continue its efforts on alumina business, including Zhongzhou and Huaxing alumina expansion of 1.5m new capacity. For aluminum business, the major focuses are more about further efficiency improvement and cost reduction, i.e. more captive power tariffs (~80% in by the end of 135), further negotiation with external power plants, as well as efficiency improvement in other aspects like labor and technicals. Baotou aluminium project of 500kt is a new one, which will come into commission in 2017. Of course, the capacity is a replacement of previous' phased out capacity.
Uncertainty in cost reduction and challenging industry outlook
We envision a bigger number of capacities shut down in 2016, but possible restarts on price recovery and new capacities in the pipeline of ~3mt each in 2016/17 still concern us. We do appreciate Chalco's efforts on cost reduction, but the potential in 2016 will be a lot less than that in 2015 in our view (Chalco's alumina and aluminium unit cost was down almost 6%/10%YOY in 9M 2015 on substantial lower coal price and efforts on directly purchased power). Together with Chalco's hefty debt, we maintain our Hold rating.
下载地址：Chalco Alert(02600.HK)Access China conference highlights 2016
