报告名称：Sinotrans Alert(00598.HK)Access China conference highlights 2016
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-13
研究机构：德意志银行
股票名称：中国外运
股票代码：00598
页数：1
简介：Sinotrans attended our Access China conference in Beijing.
Key takeaways:
Freight forwarding
The growth for this segment slowed in 2015 due to sluggish China’s exports and imports activities. Exports account for 77% of revenue while imports made up of 16.5%, with rest coming from domestic market. 2016 outlook remains challenging but mgmt still expect to see low single-digit growth for this segment.
Specialized logistics
Mgmt expects the strong growth for this segment to continue in 2016. Contract logistics, which accounted for 60% of this segment’s revenue, should continue to benefit from the rising outsourcing of logistics by companies in China. For project, energy, and chemical logistics, mgmt expects robust growth to be maintained in 2016 on the back of “OBOR” as well as Sinotrans’ SOE status.
DHL JV
The company holds 64% equity stake in Sinoair, which in turn holds a 50% in DHL-Sinotrans JV. Benefiting from cross-board E commence as well as lower oil price, the earnings of this JV surged close to 30% YoY in 9M15. Mgmt expects this strong momentum to continue into 2016. The risk of breakup of the JV remains low according to mgmt as DHL relies on Sinotrans’ network to capture strong growth in China. As the largest player in China, the JV currently accounts for 30-35% market share in China.
Acquiring logistics assets
Post group restructuring (i.e. Sinotrans & CSC group to become a subsidiary of China Merchants Group), Sinotrans Limited is likely to be the sole platform consolidating logistics assets from both groups. According to mgmt, the logistics assets currently held by China Merchants Group are similar to its specialized logistics segment and if consolidation goes ahead, certain synergies could be created.
DB view
Along with its stronger exposure to the intra-Asia and domestic market, we think the company is well positioned to weather the current tough macro environment. The possible asset injections would enable Sinotrans to further expand its network and service chain. Along with stable earnings growth and possible P/E multiple expansion ahead (Sinotrans trades at 10x 15E P/E vs. global peers of 16x), we see material upside for the share price going forward. Buy with target price of HK$6.3.

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