报告名称：Gree Electric Appliances(000651)Aggressive destocking continued in 4Q15
报告类型：深度分析
报告日期：2016-01-20
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：格力电器
股票代码：000651
页数：13
简介：What's new
Gree’s domestic sales volume of air conditioners declined 32%YoY to 5.4mn units and overseas sales volume increased 5% YoYto 1.45mn units in 4Q15, according to ChinaIOL data.
Comments
Aggressive destocking continued in 4Q15. 1) The sharpdecline in domestic sales volume indicated the aggressivedestocking continued in 4Q15. The high base effect was alsoanother key factor. 2) Retail sales were stronger in 4Q15 than in3Q15, and Gree managed to expand its market share. 3) Thedestocking pressure will likely remain in 1H16, but the pace ofdecline might moderate.
Exports of air conditioners showed sign of improving in4Q15. 1) Thanks to renminbi depreciation, exports showed signof improving in 4Q15, with industry-wide overseas sales volumedown 2% YoY to 7.52mn units. The shipments declined 5% YoYin 2015, down for the second consecutive year; 2) Gree’soverseas sales volume increased 5% YoY in 4Q15 but declined1% YoY in 2015, also showing sign of improving.
The market has reflected the aggressive destocking in the airconditioners market: Gree still offers investment value thanks toits low valuation, high dividend, and the possible launch ofShenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program.
Valuation and recommendation
We reduce our revenue forecasts by 3% for 2015 and 4% for2016, and EPS forecasts by 3% to Rmb2.30 for 2015 and 4% toRmb2.48 for 2016. Maintain BUY but trim TP by 3% toRmb27.6.
Risks
Demand volatility.

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