报告名称：Air China(00753.HK)Worst production data in 2015 among the Big-3
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-17
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：中国国航
股票代码：601111,00753
页数：7
简介：We cut our net profit forecast for 2015/16e by 13.0%/20.6%, from Rmb7.27bn/10.94bn to Rmb6.33bn/8.69bn (Rmb0.51/0.71/sh), due to revisions in our commodity/ macro team’s forecasts for oil prices/exchange rates.
Air China is trading at 0.8x/0.7x 2015/16e P/B. Maintain BUY ratings on Air China-A and Air China-H because: 1) valuation is bottoming, as the broader market plunged recently and market concerns over slowing production data and RMB depreciation are overdone; 2) demand for air travel and airfares both have a high chance of rising, as the Spring Festival approaches, and the Big-3 airlines are more sensitive to the rise than their private counterparts. Nevertheless, considering the cuts to our earnings forecasts, we cut our TP by 12.5%, from Rmb12 to Rmb10.5 for Air China-A, and by 16.7% from HK$9 to HK$7.5 for Air China-H, implying 1.9x and 1.1x 2016e P/B, respectively.

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