报告名称：SPT Energy Group(01251.HK)Turnaround unlikely in the short term
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-22
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：SPT ENERGY
股票代码：01251
页数：6
简介：Action
We maintain HOLD but cut our TP by 10% from HK$0.6 toHK$0.54.
Reasoning
Margins and workload still falling. International crude priceshave dropped below US$30 and we do not rule out furtherdownside potential in 2016. Domestic market drilling rigs arecurrently operating at only ~50% of capacity. Shrinking marginsand workloads and higher risks of project cancellation or delayare inevitable. Though SPT’s balance sheet seems healthier thanits peers with its net cash position, turnaround is still unlikely inthe next 1~2 years.
Sharp depreciation in Tenge. Kazakhstan announced it wouldbe abandoning its currency peg with the USD in August 2015.The tenge has depreciated by more than 80% since and is stillgoing down. SPT’s revenue from Kazakhstan accounts for25~35% of the total and is mainly denominated in tenge. Weexpect the tenge to remain weak or even crash further in 2016and SPT’s overseas revenue could plunge given the unlikelycontract price adjustments amid the low oil prices.
Earnings forecast and valuationGiven the worsening sector outlook, we cut 2015e & 2016eEPS from -Rmb0.1 & Rmb0.02 to -Rmb$0.19 &-Rmb0.02, and estimate 2017e EPS at -Rmb0.01.Maintain HOLD, but cut TP by 10% from HK$0.6 toHK$0.54, implying 0.53x 2016e & 0.54x 2017e P/B
Risks
Volatility in oil prices, price declines, capex cuts in E&P sector,cash flow pressure, etc.

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