报告名称：Broad-Ocean Motor(002249)Domestic bellwether in drive systems with foray into AF
报告类型：深度分析
报告日期：2016-01-15
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：大洋电机
股票代码：002249
页数：18
简介：Investment positives
Alternative fuel vehicles to start rapid growth in China.We expect sales volume over 2015~2017 to rise 270%, 61% and78% YoY to 280,000, 450,000 and 800,000 units.
Acquires Shanghai Edrive; deploys into key componentsand materials. In 2015, Broad-Ocean spent Rmb3.5bn toacquire Shanghai Edrive and became China’s largest independentsupplier of drive systems after the two parties consolidated theirAFV drive system business. Looking ahead, Broad-Ocean mayfurther consolidate the domestic market by integrating its R&Dand drive-system design strength with edges in manufacturingelectric motors. In addition, it also boasts deployment in keycomponents such as IGBT and rare earth materials, which shouldallow it to benefit from the rapid growth of AFV.
AFV leasing business to augment drive system business.Zhongshan AFV Bus Company (65% stake) will start an AFVleasing business in Zhongshan and may promote the modelacross China, thus breaking into the AFV leasing market forurban business, and public & private vehicle use by leveragingcheap costs. Broad-Ocean has also secured a stake in an AFVcompany, which intends to undertake electric urban freightvehicle business in 10 cities.ESOP to fuel future growth.
Financials
We forecast 2015/16/17e operating revenue to rise5.3%/49.4%/12.7% YoY to Rmb4.68bn, Rmb6.99bn andRmb7.88bn, and net profit to rise 3.7%/63.3%/31.0% YoY toRmb308mn, Rmb503mn and Rmb659mn.
Valuation and recommendation
As a domestic bellwether in drive systems, Broad-Ocean shouldbenefit significantly from the boom in the AFV electric motormarket. Initiate with BUY and TP of Rmb16 (55x 2016eP/E). Risks: AFV promotions and the integration of M&A targetsmissing expectations.

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