报告名称：Weichai Power Alert(02338.HK)FY15 profit warning amid weak market demand
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-27
研究机构：德意志银行
股票名称：潍柴动力
股票代码：000338,02338
页数：1
简介：67-78% YoY decline in earnings due to weak heavy truck demand
On 27 January after market close, Weichai Power announced a profit warning citing that the company expects to record a 67-78% YoY drop in its FY15 net profit (in PRC GAAP). Based on Weichai’s FY14 net profit of RMB5.0bn (including one-off gain of RMB1.6bn), FY15 reported net profit should be about RMB1.1-1.7bn.
In the announcement, Weichai attributed the earnings slump mainly to (1) the one-off gain from the consolidation of KION Group (KGX.DE, Hold, EUR44.59) of RMB1.6bn in 1H14; and (2) a weak macro-economy and demand for heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry.
Excluding the one-off gain booked in 1H14, we estimate Weichai’s FY15 net profit to drop 51-68% YoY. In FY15, Weichai recorded a 49% engine sales volume decline and 23% heavy-duty truck (HDT) sales volume decline, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).
Deutsche Bank view – FY15 profit warning not a surprise; sluggish demand to depress FY16E earnings
According to the announcement, the mid-point of Weichai’s FY15 net profit guidance of RMB1.4bn is above our full-year FY15 net profit estimate of RMB1.0bn but in-line with Bloomberg consensus. Given weak HDT sales and sluggish FAI growth YTD, we anticipate China’s FY16 HDT sales will only grow by 3.3% YoY, given 1) a lower comparison base; and 2) increasing monetary and fiscal policy easing and property relaxation measures in recent months.
We maintain our cautious view that infrastructure-led HDT demand is likely to remain muted. Therefore, we maintain a Sell rating on both Weichai-H (given stretched valuation during a heavy-duty truck downcycle) and Weichai-A (CNY7.86) given the valuation premium over the H shares.

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