报告名称：BTS Rail Mass Transit Growth Infrastructure Fund(BTSGIF.BK)Net investment income
报告类型：海外市场
报告日期：2016-01-27
研究机构：辉立证券
页数：7
简介：3QFY16 NII seen up 11.6% y‐y on higher ridership and average fareWe expect an 11.6% y‐y growth in net investment income to Bt1,045mn in the October‐December quarter as ridership and average fare per trip are likely to increase by a respective4.7% and 3.4% y‐y.
Farebox revenue would rise 8.2% y‐y to Bt1,642mn, assuming ridership will increase 4.7% to59.08mn trips, and average fare will climb 3.4% to Bt27.80 per trip as new prices for all 30‐daySmartPasses (adult and student for 15, 25, 40 and 50 trips per month), and One‐Day Pass tookinto effect from July 1, 2015. Operating cost of core BTS system is expected to rise 4.5% y‐ywhile capex would be Bt32mn, up y‐y but flattish q‐q. And thus, net farebox revenue fromcore BTS system (less operating and maintenance costs, which comprise of cost of farebox,SG&A expense, and capex) would grow 10.1% y‐y to Bt1,159mn. Combined with otherrevenue from BTSGIF, net investment income would be Bt1,045mn. We expect BTSGIF to pay3QFY16 dividend of Bt0.18/share.
4QFY16 average fare to rise further as special discounts offered to Rabbit Card and BTS SkySmartPass ended
In the first nine months of fiscal 2016 (April – December’15), ridership rose 6.9% to 173.47mntrips and average fare increased 1.8% to Bt27.35 per trip. BTS has forecast a 4%‐6% growth in2016 ridership (likely to be met), while we expect it to grow 6.3%, and a 2% rise in averagefare.
In 4QFY16, average fare would continue to grow, potentially exceeding our estimated Bt27.80in 3QFY15, as fare for Rabbit Card and BTS Sky SmartPass (stored value) returned to normallevel since special discounts offered to those cards ended on January 1, and BTS did notextend the promotion campaign. Commuters who accessed BTS system via those two type ofcards account for 25% of total ridership. BTS has earmarked a Bt280mn capex for the fiscal2016 and an only Bt66mn was spent in the first nine months, then there is prospect a largerportion of the earmarked capex would be used in 4QFY16, though some has been piled up tothe fiscal 2017.
‘ACCUMULATE’ rating maintained with Bt10.60 target price, FY16 earnings projectionunchanged
We expect net farebox revenue to grow 4.8% to Bt4,416mn and net investment income torise 4.4% to Bt3,673mn. BTSGIF is expected to pay an annual dividend of Bt0.63/share forFY16 performance. Using DDM, our FY16 target price is Bt10.60. We would revisit our FY16valuation model after we learn more information from earnings results and at the upcominganalyst meeting. At current share prices, our ‘ACCMULATE’ rating still stands.

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