报告名称：Guangshen Railway(00525.HK)December operations basically stable; HSR’s diversion
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-01-27
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：广深铁路,广深铁路股份
股票代码：GSH,601333,00525
页数：7
简介：What's new
GSR announced its operations data for December:
Intercity trainsˇ passenger volume -0.6% YoY, worse thanthe +1.7% of November and +3.4% of October.
Through trainsˇ passenger volume -0.5% YoY inDecember; the decline narrowed compared with those ofNovember (-4.6%) and October (-7%).
Long-distance trainsˇ passenger delivery volume fell63.2% in December, mainly due to differences in statisticalmethod. We estimate long-distance trainsˇ passenger trafficvolume fell ~3% in 2015 on a comparable basis. Passengerdelivery volume of long-distance trains is not directly tied toGSRˇs revenue from long-distance (see page 3 for details).
Comments
Futian station on the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong KongHSR commenced operations on December 30; weassume traffic volume of GSRˇs intercity trains will fall10% in 2016 due to the HSRˇs traffic diversion; but theactual traffic volume may beat expectations, because:1) high-speed trainsˇ current departure frequency is low; 2) timegap between HSR and intercity train is small; 3) intercity rail andHSR differ from each other in terms of departure station,intermediate stations & destination; and, 4) our data shows only1,000~2,000/day passengers departed from Futian HSR station.
Passenger fares to be hiked soon, likely to benefit GSR:we expect passenger fares of HSR and long-distance trainsˇsleeping cars will likely be raised in 2016. We estimate 65% ofits long-distance train revenue came from sleeping cars;a 20% fare hike would thus drive up earnings by 36%.
Valuation and recommendationGSR-A/-H is trading at 20.8x/17.4x 2016e P/E; maintain BUY.
Risks
Passenger volume misses expectations.

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