报告名称：China Longyuan Power(00916.HK)Curtailment shows sign of deterioration in Jan
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-02-11
研究机构：招商证券香港
股票名称：龙源电力
股票代码：00916
页数：8
简介：Longyuan's wind utilization hours down 11.3% YoY in Jan
Curtailment likely to weigh on utilization in next few months
Current valuation over 2SD below historical average; maintain BUY and TP of HK$6.9
Wind power generation up 3.2% YoY in Jan
Longyuan announced that its wind power generation was 2,537GWh in Jan 2016, representing a YoY increase of 3.2%. That being said, we still see significant decrease in power generation in some provinces with more serious curtailment issue, including Xinjiang (-53.7% YoY), Inner Mongolia (-28.8% YoY) and Heilongjiang (-11.7%) (see figure 7).
Utilization hours down 11.3% to 161 hours
We estimate Longyuan's wind utilization was 161 hours in Jan 2016, which was down 11.3% YoY (Jan 2015: 181 hours), mainly attributable to the decrease in utilization hours in Xinjiang (-57.1%), Ningxia (-51.9%) and Inner Mongolia (-34.3%) (see figure 8). Jan 2016 utilization was close to the level in Dec 2015, i.e. 160 hours, signalling higher wind resource was offset by deteriorating curtailment issues in zone I-III areas in Jan. Although we expect wind resource to improve from Feb to Apr (traditionally wind resources is the highest in Spring), the gradual ramp up of newly installed capacity will weigh on utilization hours. We therefore expect limited upside for utilization hours in the next few months.
Inflection point likely to emerge in 2017
We maintain our expectation that wind utilization will be down 50 hours in zone I-III areas in 2016, and total wind utilization hours will be down 1.5% to 1,810 hours in 2016. Utilization is likely to bottom out this year with most new capacity to be located in zone IV areas. We expect curtailment issue to improve in 2017 with gradual development of UHV lines.
Maintain BUY rating with TP of HK$6.9
Share price of Longyuan was down 8.9% last Friday after the release of power generation data. Currently the counter is trading at 6.5x 1-yr forward rolling P/E, which is more than 2SD below its 6-yr average level. We remain positive on the company considering its attractive valuation and potential increase in utilization hours in 2017. We maintain our BUY rating on Longyuan with TP of HK$6.9, implying 13.5x FY16E P/E.

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