报告名称：BJC Heavy Industries(BJCHI.BK)4QFY15 earnings to be spectacular FY16 revenue to
报告类型：海外市场
报告日期：2016-02-09
研究机构：辉立证券
页数：9
简介：4QFY15 net profit likely beats view
We forecast a 69.6% y‐y and 40.2% q‐q growth in 4QFY15 net profit to Bt588mn, premisedon: 1) a larger portion of revenue recognition from FPSO project as BJCHI previously wasrequested to accelerate the project, 2) a resumption of Petrobras P75‐77 while a partial ofincome was recognized in the quarter, 3) a Bt160mn gain from compensation of delayedPetrobras P75‐77, and 4) FX gain of Bt40mn. Gross margin is expected to widen to 31.6% vs29.32% reported in 3QFY15.
To reflect unexpected compensation for project delay in Petrobras P75‐77, we raise our FY15net profit projection to Bt1,349mn, representing a growth of 34.5%.
FY16 net profit seen up 15% on rising awarded projects
FY16 earnings are likely to grow in line with BJCHI’s growth target of 15% while we forecast a15.4% y‐y to Bt1,557mn as BJCHI is expected to recognize a portion of its substantial backlogapprox Bt3,700mn and to potentially realize revenue of a roughly Bt3,500mn from project inbidding. We expect gross margin of 30% in 2016.
There are five projects in bidding: 1) FPSO of three vessels worth Bt2,800mn‐Bt3,000mn—
results to unveil in 1QFY16, 2) precast concrete Australia worth Bt400mn‐Bt500mn (results inlate 2QFY16), 3) petrochemical project valued Bt400mn‐Bt500mn (results in 3QFY16), 4) steel& mining Australia worth Bt2,500mn (results in 3QFY16), and 5) FPSO of four vessels—subcontracting from EPC contractor—worth Bt2,800mn‐Bt3,000mn. We expect BJCHI to winmore than Bt9,100mn projects and about Bt3,500mn of which would be recognized duringthe year and the remaining of approx Bt5,600mn in 2017.
FY16 target price raised to Bt9.75, ‘BUY’ rating maintained
In addition to massive backlog to support growth over the next couple years and brightearnings prospect in 2015‐2016, the upgrade in our earnings projections pushes our FY16target price up to Bt9.75, pegged to P/B of 2.4x which is a tad below its three‐year historicalaverage of 2.45x. Combined with the top notch client, like Petrobras, our ‘BUY’ rating stillstands.

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