报告名称：Ladprao General Hospital(LPH.BK)4QFY15 net profit seen up on higher patient numb
报告类型：海外市场
报告日期：2016-02-09
研究机构：辉立证券
页数：9
简介：4QFY15 net profit seen up q‐q, y‐y
We expect 4QFY15 net profit to grow 3.8% q‐q (+17.9% y‐y) to Bt33mn despite seasonaleffect and a greater number of holidays, as LPH developed its five excellent centers‐‐eyecenter, gastrointestinal and liver center, surgery center, neurology center, and skin laser &dermatology center—since mid‐2015. Particularly, the eye center (firstly opened among thefive) received overwhelmed response with a stronger‐than‐expected number of patients,which would boost revenue by 11.1% q‐q (+21.9% y‐y) to Bt325mn. Meanwhile, a largerportion of intensity cases (dengue fever and influenza) will likely widen gross margin to 23.9%from 23.5% reported in 3QFY15. In addition to upbeat core business outlook, its subsidiaryAMARC is expected to grow at a robust pace.
With this in the picture, we raise our FY15 net profit by 7.9% to Bt96mn from earlier Bt89mn.FY16 net profit to grow 45% y‐y
We forecast a 19.6% y‐y rise in FY16 revenue to Bt1,396mn and gross margin would widen to26.0% (vs our estimated 25.4% in 2015. As such, net profit would grow 44.8% to Bt139mn.Our forecast is premised on: 1) the opening of its five excellent centers since 4QFY15 aheadof its previously scheduled to serve growing demand, and 2) potential increases in SSSpatients and cash patients, particularly medium‐end earners and senior people (increasing ata rapid rate) who would opt for budget and medium‐price range hospitals on heels of lowconsumer spending power.
‘ACCUMULATE’ rating with FY16 target price of Bt7.20
Despite gloom earnings outlook for 2015, we foresee bright prospect in 2016 on the back ofrising patient volume and LPH’s investment extension—e.g., 1) a new building at LadpraoGeneral Hospital to serve patients under Social Security Scheme, 2) elderly care center atLadprao General Hospital, 3) greenfield investment of Ladprao Lamlukka Hospital, whichwould allow LPH and its chain hospital to serve the largest SSS patients in the country,implying steady income in the long run. We rate LPH an ‘ACCUMULATE’ rating on LPH withFY16 target price of Bt7.20/share.

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