报告名称：StanChart：Absorbing stress
报告类型：海外市场
报告日期：2016-02-08
研究机构：美国银行美林公司
页数：15
简介：Higher impairments
As recently with HSBC, we are passing weaker energy prices and Asian GDP growththrough our 2017 forecasts. We now see 130bp of impairments in 2017E, up from 86bp.This compares with 2015E impairments of 215bp, an elevated 165bp in 2016E and peakAsian crisis losses of 172bp. Exposures that will no longer be in the bank’s portfoliohave contributed close to half of recent impairments; including certain large corporateconcentrations in south Asia (Chart 3) and disposed consumer finance operations (Chart5). The remaining portfolio should perform more akin to that of the 1990s; we believeour new forecasts capture the shocks of recent weeks.
Shaving revenues: a complex picture
Lower potential Hong Kong GDP growth reduces our regional income forecasts.However, Standard Chartered has often seen margins on core products including FX andRates improve in times of stress. Between the US$15bn run rate of 3Q 15 revenues andthe over-US$18bn of income implied in management’s forecasts, there is much scopefor debate. We now see 2018 revenues at US$16.9bn, a US$0.3bn cut.
Capital strong: a 130bp cushion
We see Standard Chartered with over US$39bn in CET1 at end-2015, a ratio of 12.8%.Now the Bank of England has confirmed the end of UK requirement inflation, thisrepresents an end-state minimum cushion of 130bp, a conservative level. We expect abreak-even 2016 but lower RWA, meaning 70bp of prospective CET1 build. With a closeto8% return on tangible equity by 2018, we see the below 0.5x tangible NAV multiple asattractive. Our PO falls to 650p with the NAV reductions from lower retentions; wereiterate our Buy rating.

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