报告名称：Precious Shipping(PSL.BK)4QFY15 net loss deepens worse than forecast on impairme
报告类型：海外市场
报告日期：2016-02-10
研究机构：辉立证券
页数：10
简介：4QFY15 net loss of Bt1,512mn, worse than forecast on impairment loss on vessels to besold in 2016, but core loss turns in better than estimate on higher-than-expected TC rate
PSL reported 4QFY15 net loss of Bt1,512mn, wider than Bt21mn reported in the sameperiod last year and our estimated Bt791mn, as the company recognized a Bt841mnimpairment loss on vessels to be sold this year. Stripping out the impairment loss, loss atBt671mn was better than our forecast as TC rate turned out stronger than expected.Revenue from sales and services fell 12.7% y-y to Bt1,095mn, a slower pace than TC ratewhich dropped 25.9% to US$5,955/vessel (11.2% above our estimated US$5,355) as its fleetsize increased to 45 vs 42 a year earlier and the baht depreciated by 9.6%. Operatingexpense rose 10.6% as the increase in vessel numbers led to higher vessel operating daysbut average opex declined a mere 2.2% to US$4,718/day/vessel (2% above our forecastedUS$4,625). Depreciation and amortization charges climbed 18.3%, and SG&A expensejumped 158.4% as PSL recorded expenses for disputes on shipbuilding contracts, a Bt279mnlosses on vessel sales (in line), and the unexpected impairment loss on vessels expected tobe sold in 2016.
For 2015, net loss widened to Bt2,426mn, wider compared to Bt80mn a year ago.
1QFY16 core loss to deepen q-q as BDI hit new low and new vessel plan falls off track
BDI made a series of new low, hitting 293 points last Monday (February 8) vs 478 pointsseen at end-2015. As such, PSL’s TC rate is expected to fall further in 1QFY16 and we expectthe company’s core loss to widen from Bt392mn reported in 4QFY15.
PSL has a plan to sell its 12 old vessels in 2016-2017—a vessel was sold in February—butearnings are unlikely to suffer huge loss as PSL already realized impairment loss in 2015. Wedo not expect loss to be significant if vessel sales turn in below the book value. But PSLwould recognize impairment loss in 2016 as the company plans to sell more vessels in 2017,like what it did in 2015, if the dry bulk shipping industry remains subdued.
Regarding fleet size, the company is expected to receive five vessels during the year, whichis well below its earlier plan to receive 12 vessels in 2016, as PSL’s new shipbuildingcontracts with Sainty reduce to three vessels (cancellation increased from four to nine) andwith Sanfu decrease to eight. It is needed to follow up if a number of cancellations willclimb.
According to Management Discussion and Analysis for 4QFY15, PSL forecasts freight rate toremain subdued in the first half of 2016 but to improve during late year as the gloom anddoom industry, which would lead to a decommission of more vessels, and delay of new shipdeliveries should slow down growth pace in supply of dry bulk shipping. That would helprebalance demand and supply dynamics.
‘NEUTRAL’ rating upgraded with Bt4.88 target price
PSL is likely to shoulder heavier burden on interest bearing debt as the company issued afive-year debenture worth Bt3,590mn at a coupon rate of 5.2%/year, while it has a plan toraise more funds approx Bt10,000mn from shareholders via debenture issuance. We keepour FY16 TC rate assumption at US$6,550 and average opex/day/vessel unchanged. For thisreason, revenue would grow 14.8% to Bt4,885mn and net loss would narrow down toBt1,193mn. The wider loss results prompted heavy selling of PSL shares, and with higherupside to our target price of Bt4.88, pegged to P/B of 0.52x (the same level to that duringsubprime crisis), we upgrade rating on PSL to ‘NEUTRAL’ from ‘SELL’ stance.

下载地址：Precious Shipping(PSL.BK)4QFY15 net loss deepens worse than forecast on impairme