报告名称：SOHO China(00410.HK)Rentalgrowthinline﹔butearningsmiss
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-03-09
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：SOHO中国
股票代码：00410
页数：6
简介：Rental income in line, but core NP misses
SOHO reported 2015 revenue of Rmb1.0bn (-84% YoY),+10%/-10% vs. CICCe/consensus. Reported core NP came in atRmb432mn (-76% YoY), 58% below consensus. Adjusted earningsturned negative to -Rmb35mn (core NP of the leasing business), muchlower than our estimate of Rmb247mn. We attribute the miss to: 1) ajump in finance costs to 55% of revenue (total interest paid rose 25%to Rmb1.3bn, while the capitalization ratio fell 40ppt to 36%); and 2)high operational expenses, standing at 32% of revenue. A specialdividend of Rmb0.348/sh was declared, implying a 10% dividend yield.
Trends to watch
Rental income continues to ramp up. We expect rentals to riseanother 59% in 2016 (vs. 148% in 2015), as 95% of SOHO’scompleted IPs (in GFA) are in the first leasing cycle: Wangjing TowerIII, Fuxing, Sky and Guanghualu II (62% in GFA) were launched in2014, and have both occupancy and rents upside in 2016; Hongkouand Bund SOHO (27% in GFA) were launched in 4Q15, and shouldbring in full year rental income as an incremental part in 2016.
Net cash outflows a concern. The Rmb1.8bn dividend will use upRmb1.7bn of rental income. Construction costs, SG&A and taxes willeat into cash. We expect 2016 net gearing to rise to 38% from 24%.
Earnings forecast
Raise 2016e core NP 9% to Rmb560mn, and introduce2017e core NP of Rmb769mn.
Valuation and recommendation
We raise our NAV estimate 8% to HK$5.35/sh, moving into 2016.We raise our TP 8% to HK$3.75 based on a 30% target NAV disc.We advise investors to remain on the sideline until visible earningsmaterialize. Maintain HOLD.
Risks
Macroeconomic downturn.

下载地址：SOHO China(00410.HK)Rentalgrowthinline﹔butearningsmiss