报告名称：China Mobile Limited(00941.HK)Unexciting 4Q earnings turnaround likely in 2016E
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-03-18
研究机构：摩根大通
股票名称：中国移动
股票代码：CHL,00941
页数：14
简介：Lackluster 4Q numbers due to tower leasing expense and asset write-off: If excluding one-offs such as unused data rollover impact of Rmb10bn and tower transaction gain of Rmb15.5bn, we estimate 4Q revenue without Tietong consolidation was flattish and EBITDA/earnings came down by 13%/22%. This was below the Streetˇs expectation partly due to the kick in of tower leasing expenses (Rmb5.6bn in 4Q) and aggressive asset write-off (over Rmb6b in 2H). Recurring mobile APRU declined by roughly 2% (JPMe), in line with the previous two quarters.
Fixed broadband competitive landscape unlikely to deteriorate: CM disclosed details about its fixed broadband operation for the first time. Contrary to common perception that the Tietong acquisition signifies a move for CM listco to enter the broadband market, the listco itself has already aggressively developed the business for a few years and now has over 55mn customers (incl. 12mn from Tietong), compared to CU of 72mn and CT of 113mn. Fixed broadband contributed 3% of the companyˇs revenue in 2015, with 13% yoy growth. Company guidance indicates a similar subscriber growth rate to previous years and more emphasis on high bandwidth products and integrated offerings with TV and smart homes this year.
Capex guidance disappointing, dividend payout as expected: Capex is only going to decline by 5% this year to Rmb186bn, which is slightly higher than market expectations and will be overshadowed by CUˇs significant capex cut. Management expects substantial decline in 2017 post aggressive 4G rollout. The company maintains a payout ratio of 43% for both 2015 and 2016.
Expect earnings turnaround in 2016 after a messy 2015: We expect to see mid- to high-single-digit earnings growth in CM in the coming years, assuming no extension of unused data rollover, on the back of low- to mid-single-digit top-line growth, continued cost-efficiency improvement and positive impact from the implementation of Tower Co. etc.

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