报告名称：Huaneng Renewables(00958.HK)Better than Expected Results Maintain “Buy”
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-03-21
研究机构：国泰君安国际
研究员：吴逸超
股票名称：华能新能源
股票代码：00958
页数：7
简介：2015 EPS was slightly above expectations. Huaneng Renewables' 2015 EPS increased by 54% YoY to RMB0.191, 9.2% higher than our expectation. The increase of net profit was mainly driven by: 1) the wind capacity expansion and 2) financial expense basically remained flat. In 2015 HNR added new wind capacity of 2,194MW and new solar capacity of 140MW. Wind utilisation basically remained flat YoY (up 7 hours or 0.4% YoY).
Key adjustments for HNR: 1) Slightly revise down newly installed wind capacity for 2016 from 1.5GW to 1.4GW to match HNR's guidance (maintain 1.5GW forecast for 2017 unchanged), 2) Slightly revise down the wind utilisation estimate in 2016/2017 by 0.2%, 3) Revise down financial expense estimates for 2016-2017.
Maintain ¨Buy〃 rating for HNR and revise up TP to HK$3.00, implying 29% upside. 2016/2017 EPS forecasts are revised up by 9%/7% to RMB0.245/0.282 and we also introduce 2018 EPS forecasts to be RMB0.327. Our new TP represents 10.4x/9.0x/7.8x 2016/2017/2018 PER. Although the wind curtailment rate may remain higher in the ¨Three-Northern-Areas〃 in China in the next few years, HNR will add most of their new wind farms in non-curtailed regions in the future. As the share of wind capacity located in serious curtailment provinces of HNR is expected to decrease in the future (51% as of 2015), we think the further downside risk of wind utilisation for HNR would be limited.

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