报告名称：China Telecom(00728.HK)Solid 4Q positive guidance capex cut overshadowed by Unic
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-03-24
研究机构：摩根大通
股票名称：中国电信
股票代码：CHA,00728
页数：16
简介：CT's 4Q15 results show better than peers' trend in revenue, EBITDA and earnings.Management guidance is upbeat on subs growth, ARPU and margin trend.However, the capex decline of 11% for 2016 is overshadowed by CU's moresignificant decline and some investors may find this disappointing. We maintainOW with a HK$5.1 PT, comprised of HK$4.1 for fair value and HK$1 for TowerCo. stake. Upcoming catalysts include mobile ARPU growth, decent mobile andbroadband subscriber growth, EBIT margin improvement and extension of the cooperationwith CU etc. We continue to prefer CU and CT over CM.
Industry-leading top-line growth: CTˇs mobile service revenue growth(+3.5%) outpaced both CM (-1.3%) and CU (-8%) for the second consecutiveyear. Full year ARPU was flattish at Rmb54, despite negative impact fromVAT and unused data rollover. If stripping out the unused data rollover impactof Rmb2bn, mobile service revenue and ARPU increased by 9% and 2%respectively in 4Q15. Fixed-line revenue grew 1% yoy this year, driven by an11% yoy growth in VAS & integrated information services, and the growthclean of VAT impact was 3% yoy in 2H15.
Earnings beat, positive guidance on opex: 2015 EBITDA was in line with ourestimates but below street by 2%, mainly due to the kick-in of tower usage fee(Rmb2.7bn in 4Q15). Earnings beat consensus by 5% on tower depreciationsavings and higher-than-expected tower transaction gain. If stripping out theone-off transaction gains, earnings would be Rmb16.1bn, down 9% yoy and thedecline is smaller than CM and CUˇs. Management expects cash opex to growless than top-line and depreciation to be flattish, implying better margin.
Capex guidance and dividend unexciting: Capex budget for 2016 isRmb97bn, vs actual spend of Rmb109bn in 2015. The 11% decline is driven by7% drop in 4G capex and 15% drop in other capex. Some investors may find itdisappointing in light of CUˇs much lower capex guidance. Managementemphasized capex spend in 2015 was much lower than CUˇs, implying this ismore of a timing issue. Dividend remains HK$0.095 despite a 13% yoy increasein reported earnings as recurring earnings (excl. non-cash tower transactiongain) declined by 9% yoy and FCF was still negative.

下载地址：China Telecom(00728.HK)Solid 4Q positive guidance capex cut overshadowed by Unic