报告名称：Huaneng Renewables(00958.HK)1QFY16 profit +60% YoY; beat market consensus
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-04-26
研究机构：招商证券(香港)
股票名称：华能新能源
股票代码：00958
页数：5
简介：Net profit growth was supported by increase in power output and decrease in average cost of debt
HNR added 100MW of capacity in 1QFY16; most new capacity is expected to be added near year end
Attractive valuation despite recent rally; Maintain BUY with TP of HK$2.7/share
Net profit surgedon higher power output & lower cost of debt
HNR's 1QFY16 revenue grew 25% YoY to RMB2,229mn, representing 23%/23% of our full year forecast and market consensus for FY16E; while net profit rose 60% YoY to RMB735mn, representing 32%/34% of our full year forecast and market consensus for FY16E. Net profit growth was mainly attributable to i) 29% YoY increase in wind power generation in 1QFY16 (4,389 GWh), which supported tariff income during the period; and ii) decrease in average cost of debt, leading to net profit margin expansion from 26% to 33%. We estimated the company's average cost of debt decreased from 5.2% in 1QFY15 to 4.2% in 1QFY16.
Full year target of 1.4GW new capacity remains unchanged
HNR added 100MW in Shaanxi in 1QFY16, therefore bringing the cumulative installed wind capacity to 9,821MW by the end of the period. The company targets to add 1.4GW of wind capacity, most of which are expected to complete construction near the end of FY16E (unlike in FY15, 41% of new capacity was added in 1H under rush installation). As such, we forecast the company's whole year power generation to be 17,869GW (+29% YoY). As for wind utilization, HNR's 1QFY16 wind utilization was up 4% to 502 hours, which is the highest among its peers (LY (916 HK):464 hours; Datang (1798 HK): 419 hours), contributing to 29% YoY increase in wind power generation during the period amid serious curtailment in zone I-III areas. We do not expect meaningful improvement in curtailment in zone I-III areas in FY16E, as the execution of supportive policies will take time and the positive impact is likely to be seen in FY17E. That being said, HNR should be the most defensive play among peers with its small exposure to highly- curtailed regions (64% in zone IV areas by the end of FY16E). We estimate HNR's wind utilization to be 1,850 hours in FY16E (-1.7% YoY).
Attractive valuation of 8.2x FY16E P/E, 1.3SDbelow hist. mean
We like HNR because it has relatively low exposure to zone I-III areas, implying less sensitive to curtailment and higher earnings visibility. Despite the recent rally, the counter is still trading at an attractive valuation of 8.2x FY16E P/E, which is ~1.3 SD below its 3-year average (LY: 11x FY16E P/E; ~1.7 SD below hist. mean). We maintain BUY rating on the stock with TP of HK$2.7, equivalent to 10x FY16E P/E.

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