报告名称：Anta(02020.HK)1Q16 sell-through lagged DBe but 4Q16 orderbook growth solid
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-05-20
研究机构：德意志银行
股票名称：安踏体育
股票代码：02020
页数：10
简介：Limited negative implications from the sell-through vs. orderbook mismatch
Likely a miss on 1Q16 sell-through
Solid orderbook is the bright spot
The debate: orderbook vs. sell-through: we believe retail discount is the culprit
Valuation and downside risks
We value Anta using a DCF methodology, as we expect investors to focus onits long-term earnings outlook. We use a cost of equity of 10.6%, based on arisk-free rate of 3.9% (Deutsche Bank assumption), equity risk premium of5.6% (Deutsche Bank assumption), and beta of 1.3. We assume a perpetualgrowth rate of 2%, in line with the Hong Kong and China consumerdiscretionary space’s 1-2%. Key downside risks: intense competition, weakerthan-expected macro conditions, and higher channel inventory.

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