报告名称：Ctrip.com International(CTRP.US)Cut 2016 Earnings Expectations Maintain "Ne
报告类型：海外市场
报告日期：2016-05-12
研究机构：国泰君安国际
页数：11
简介：We do not expect Ctrip's RMB 3 billion investment in China Eastern tohave a significant impact on Ctrip's profitability in the short to mediumterm. Ctrip announced that it had agreed to invest RMB3 billion in cash inChina Eastern Airlines ("CEA" 600115 CH, 00670 HK). Ctrip's initialinvestment would give it about a 3% stake in CEA. However, due to the smallsize of the investment, we do not expect a significant impact to Ctrip's bottomline in the short term.
We forecast 2016-2018 fully diluted earnings per ADS ("EPADS") of RMB(5.03), RMB 3.26 and RMB 7.72, respectively, representing CAGR of5.3%. We are less optimistic in our outlook for 2016 hotel related revenuegrowth in China due to a weaker than expected macro-economicenvironment. We have decreased our 2016 fully diluted EPADS forecasts onlower revenue forecast and higher operating expense ratio.
We lower our target price from US$ 44.00 to US$ 42.00 and maintain"Neutral" investment rating. We have decreased our target price on lowerearnings forecasts. Still, we expect Ctrip's top line growth and market share tocontinue to grow rapidly. In addition, operating margin will begin to improvestarting from 2Q16. Our US$ 42.00 target price is equivalent to 68.3x 2017 /28.9x 2018 PE (GAAP), is a 16.7% discount to our DCF based NAV ofUS$50.39 and implies 3.5% downside potential.

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