报告名称：Uni-President China Holdings(00220.HK)Good earnings growth in line but quality d
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2015-08-10
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：统一企业中国
股票代码：00220
页数：10
简介：1H15 NP rallied 93% YoY, in line with our forecasts
Sales slid 3% YoY (beverages/noodles: flat/-7%) with juice(+26% driven by Haizhiyan which booked >Rmb1.0bn revenue)the only highlight. GPM jumped 5.3ppt YoY (beverages/noodles+4.7ppt/5.3ppt) mainly due to mix upgrade and lower inputcosts. Estimated Rmb60mn interest expenses were capitalized,leading to “cost savings” even with a higher debt level. (Figure 1)
Trends to watch
Sales of old products to remain under big pressure from2H15 onwards (iced red/green tea, Chinese/western juice,milk tea and noodles) though total sales of Haizhiyan andClassmate Xiaoming may exceed Rmb2.0bn in 2015 (>14% ofbeverage sales). In 3Q15, the cool and rainy weather in Chinamay not help boost beverage consumption while A&P expenseswill increase QoQ. Cost benefits on GPM are declining both YoYand HoH (in particular the rising sugar price). We thus expectsliding earnings QoQ in 3Q15 and losses again in 4Q15. Currentyear P/E of 31x reflects a relatively optimistic scenario whilethe visibility of 2016 is low for now given the weak demand.Long-term margin ceiling under a margin-oriented strategy,and fewer growth drivers outside 2015 than the key peer.
Beverage’s OPM hit a five-year high at 11.0% in 1H15, whichmay not be sustainable given its declining utilization rate andpeers’ likely follow-ups from a dynamic angle. Noodles’ ugly salesgrowth could be down to the road and pose a cap on margins.
Valuation and recommendation
Lift 2015/16e earnings forecasts by 5%/4% to reflect ablended result of a better OPM, capitalized finance costs and ahigher effective tax rate (Figure 2). Raise end-2015 TP toHK$6.0 (24x 2015e EPS) from HK$5.2 (+15%) on upwardrevised earnings and trimmed medium-term capex forecasts.
Maintain SELL for now considering the stretched valuation andclouded outlook from 2016.
Risks
Sales recovery better than expected.
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