报告名称：Kweichow Moutai(600519)Hike of wholesale price ahead of peak season
报告类型：点评报告
报告日期：2015-08-19
研究机构：中金公司
股票名称：贵州茅台
股票代码：600519
页数：4
简介：Comments
Moutai may follow the step of Wuliangye to boost its wholesale price for tier-1 distributors. The wholesaleprice for tier-1 distributors has been rising notably since Wuliangye raised its ex-plant price in early August. Moutai alsoplans to use the price hike to drive wholesale prices higher and maintain a price premium over Wuliangye in thehigh-end liquor market. In addition, we believe such a price hike might be welcomed by distributors as it may helpexpand their margins. Recently, Moutai saw a slight rebound in the wholesale price for tier-1 distributors, and the pricehike may be more effective thanks to an approaching peak season. Moutai’s wholesales price for tier-1 distributors oncereached Rmb850~860/bottle around this year’s Spring Festival holiday. We expect Moutai’s wholesales price for tier-1distributors to continue to rebound in the near term.
Ex-plant price unlikely to be hiked in the near term. We believe it remains too early for Moutai to directly raise itsex-plant price: 1) Historically, ex-plant prices were normally raised at a time when distributors had a decent margin. Thecurrently low distribution margin may not support a rise of ex-plant prices; 2) the trend of sales volume remains to beseen since the wealth effect of the stock market has weakened in 2H15; 3) a rise in ex-plant prices might face somepressure amid the ongoing anti-corruption campaign.
Despite all the efforts to boost prices, prices of high-end liquors will likely decline after the peak season.Wuliangye raised its ex-plant price in early-August, and Luzhou Laojiao also took measures to raise prices indirectly.Thanks to the liquor industry recovery and a rebalance between sales volume and selling prices, high-end liquorproducers have started to raise their prices ahead of the peak season. However, we believe these price hikes are notmarket-driven. After a brief rise in sales during the peak season, prices of high-end liquors may decline again during theslack season. The effect of a price hike remains subject to market conditions.Valuation and recommendationWe keep our EPS forecasts at Rmb13.72 for 2015 and Rmb15.09 for 2016. Maintain BUY and TP of Rmb274.55.
Risks
Demand continues to weaken; price declines further.

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