报告名称：China Vanke(000002)1H15 results boosted by markedly higher GFA delivery； otherwi
报告类型：深度分析
报告日期：2015-08-18
研究机构：德意志银行股份有限公司
股票名称：万科Ｂ,万科Ａ,万科企业,万科H代
股票代码：200002,000002,02202,299903
页数：23
简介：Maintain Buy on strong earnings visibility/financial position; TP Rmb17.3
1H15 core net profit +19% YoY to Rmb4,705mn; margin decline as expected In our view, the strong earnings growth registered in 1H15 brings little excitement as it was merely a function of markedly higher GFA delivery over the period that 1H15 results was otherwise in-line with expectation (i.e. declining margins and higher net gearing). Nevertheless, Vanke has above-industry-average sales performance in 1H15 and we see good earnings visibility ahead with unbooked sales balance reaching a new record high to Rmb210bn. Meanwhile, while management outlined plans on the five new businesses Vanke is currently pursuing, we believe it is far too early to think about potential earnings/value accretion at this point.
1H15 core net profit +19% YoY to Rmb4,705mn; margin decline as expected
Vanke's reported 1H15 revenue +24% YoY to Rmb47,626mn, driven by a 25.5% YoY increase in GFA delivered at 4.557mn sqm but delivery ASP actually fell slightly by 2.6% YoY to Rmb10,068/sqm. Meanwhile, overall gross margin remained mostly flat at 26.5% (gross margin for property development fell 1.08 pct points to 22.2% but recovered from FY14's 21.4%). Reported net profit +1% YoY to Rmb4,846mn. Excluding exceptional items, core net profit +19% YoY to Rmb4,705mn but core margin saw a 30bps compression to 9.9% (10.2% in 1H14). No interim dividend was declared in 2015 (unchanged YoY).
Net gearing rose to 21% by mid-15, but still one of the lowest in the industry
By mid-15, Vanke had total gross debt of Rmb63.2bn (-8% from Rmb69bn by end-14) and cash of Rmb44.6bn (-29% from Rmb62.7bn by end-14). Meanwhile, net gearing rose to 21% by mid-14 (7% at end-2014) mainly due to more aggressive pace in land acquisition where 26 new projects (total attributable GFA of 2mn sqm and average unit land cost of Rmb3,984/sqm) were acquired with an attributable cost of Rmb20bn, yet net gearing is still one of the lowest in the industry (industry average of 80%).
Target price based on 15% discount to our estimated NAV of RMB20.35/shr
Our target price is based on a 15% discount to our estimated NAV of RMB20.35/shr (Rmb18.88/shr). Our target discount is still higher than that of SOE developers such as COLI but at a premium to other privately-owned peers, which we believe is appropriate, given Vanke's strong execution and sound corporate governance. We adopt NAV as our primary valuation metric. Risks: government measures, margin fluctuations.

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