FEC专题预告：新冠肺炎大流行的经济影响

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编按:截至10月下旬，新冠肺炎疫情全球确诊病例已超过4000万，对劳动力市场、国际贸易等全球经济的方方面面都带来重大而深远的影响。鉴于疫情的迅速蔓延及其重要影响，FEC特推出“新冠肺炎大流行的经济影响”专题，希望相关研究成果的及时出版能对政府、企业和个人决策有所助益。稿件全文将于12月上线，敬请期待！全球战疫，让我们以各自的方式，略尽绵薄之力！

Symposium on the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

新冠肺炎大流行的经济影响

Suqin Ge, Yu Zhou

Social Distancing, Labor Market Outcomes, and Job Characteristics in the COVID-19 Pandemic

新冠肺炎大流行期间的社交距离、劳动力市场结果与职业特征

DOI: 10.3868/s060-011-020-0021-3

Abstract: This paper investigates the role of job characteristics on an individual’s decisions to follow social distancing policies, work, and apply for unemployment insurance in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use data that track millions of mobile devices and their daily movements across physical locations to measure whether the mobile devices leave their homes, or part-time or full-time at work that day, and we also collect data on weekly unemployment insurance claims. We find that the presence of jobs with high work-from-home capacity in a region increases the ability of people to follow social distancing policies and decreases their unemployment risk, whereas the presence of jobs with high physical proximity decreases the incidences of following social distancing policies and unemployment and increases the incidence of work during the pandemic. These heterogeneous responses based on local job characteristics persist even conditional on a broad set of demographic and socioeconomic variables.

摘要：本文研究了在新冠肺炎大流行期间的美国，职业特征对于个体在决定遵守社交距离政策、工作和申请失业保险方面发挥的作用。我们追踪了数百万移动设备及其在物理位置之间的日常移动轨迹，使用这些数据来衡量某一天这些移动设备所有者是否离开家庭，从事的是兼职还是全职工作，我们也收集了每周的失业保险申领数据。我们发现，在一个地区居家办公性能高的工作岗位会提高人们遵守社交距离政策的能力并降低其失业风险，而需要近距离接触的工作岗位则会降低人们遵守社交距离政策和失业的可能，提高了在疫情期间继续工作的可能。这些基于当地职业特征的不同反应即便引入一组广泛的人口和社会经济变量时依然存在。

Xiaobo He, Fang Xiao

Unintended Consequences of Lockdowns: Evidence from Domestic Helpers in Urban China

封城的意外后果：来自中国城市家庭帮佣的实证研究

DOI:10.3868/s060-011-020-0022-0

Abstract: Using a novel dataset containing information of over 40 thousand Chinese domestic helpers registered at a leading professional website during November 2019 and June 2020, this paper addresses the reactions of domestic helpers to the Wuhan (Hubei Province) lockdown occurred on January 23, 2020. It finds a decline pattern of short-term labor supply of domestic helpers across 11 Chinese major cities, and shows this increases the expected monthly wage of domestic helpers in these cities. More importantly, using a difference-in-differences model, this paper provides some evidence on the existence of labor market discrimination against domestic helpers born in Hubei Province due to employers’ fears of infection.

摘要：本文使用包含2019年11月至2020年6月期间在一家主流专业网站上注册的超过40000名中国家庭帮佣信息的崭新数据集，探析家庭帮佣对于2020年1月23日（湖北省）武汉市封城事件的反应。研究发现，在11个中国主要城市里家庭帮佣的短期劳动力供给呈现下降模式，表明这提高了家庭帮佣在这些城市的预期月薪。更为重要的是，本文使用双重差分模型提供了一些证据，表明雇主出于感染疫情的恐惧对鄂籍家庭帮佣存在劳动力市场歧视。

Yi Che, Weiqiang Liu, Yan Zhang, Lin Zhao

China’s Exports during the Global Pandemic

全球疫情大流行期间的中国出口

DOI: 10.3868/s060-011-020-0023-7

Abstract: The global COVID-19 pandemic has caused huge economic contraction in most countries, including all of China's major trading partners. Using a difference-in-differences model, this paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China’s monthly exports from January 2019 to May 2020. We find strong and robust evidence that China’s exports to countries at high risk from the pandemic have experienced a larger decline than exports to low-risk countries after the onset of the pandemic, with the prices of exports increasing significantly. Furthermore, a triple differences model shows heterogeneous effects across different industries and goods. Chinese industries located upstream in global value chains are more vulnerable than those located downstream. Industries with high labor and contract intensity (proxies for processing trade) have experienced greater declines than other industries. Exports of goods with high import elasticity of substitution have experienced higher price and moderate volume losses due to the pandemic.

摘要：新冠肺炎疫情的全球大流行已经导致包括中国主要贸易伙伴在内的大多数国家的巨大经济收缩。本文使用双重差分模型考察了2019年1月至2020年5月期间新冠肺炎疫情对于中国月度出口情况的影响。强有力的证据表明，疫情爆发之后，中国对疫情高风险国家的出口相比疫情低风险国家的出口经历了更大幅度的下降，而出口价格却显著上涨。此外，三重差分模型表明在不同行业和商品之间存在非均匀效应。位于全球价值链上游的中国产业相比下游产业更加脆弱。相比其他产业，具有较高劳动和合约密集度的产业（作为加工贸易的代理指标）经历更大的跌幅。受疫情影响，具有较高进口替代弹性的商品，其出口价格上涨幅度更大，其出口数量下降幅度更少。

Yun Wang, Mingyang Yan

Past Experiences, Personality Traits, and Risk Aversion: Evidence from Individual Risk Preferences during the COVID-19 Pandemic

过往经历、人格特征与风险厌恶：基于新冠肺炎大流行期间个体风险偏好的行为经济学研究

DOI:10.3868/s060-011-020-0024-4

Abstract: Individuals’ risk attitudes play roles in economic decision making and policy evaluations, particularly in the midst of the unprecedented uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we adopt the multiple-price-list elicitation method with real money incentives(Holt and Laury, 2002) to precisely measure individuals’ risk preferences at different stakes, and the extent to which they are affectedby individuals’ experienced personal and social shocks following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in China. We find that subjects who had previously experienced negative shocks in their personal lives exhibit higher degrees of risk aversion at medium and large payment stakes, but became more risk-loving at very small payment stake. Previous exposure to social shock or natural disasters has no significant effect on subjects’ risk preferences. Within our sample, COVID-19 has no significant impact on risk preferences, and the pandemic is more likely to be regarded as a social shock by our subjects. The result may indicate that the impact of the pandemic on individuals’ risk preferences is not as influential as expected, unless the individual’s personal life has been hit directly by the pandemic. Our finding has important behavioral and policy implications.

摘要：个体的风险态度在经济决策和政策评估中起着作用，尤其是在新冠肺炎大流行带来史无前例的不确定性之际。本文中，我们采用带有真实金钱激励的多重价格列表法(Holt and Laury, 2002)，以准确衡量个体对不同风险的风险偏好，以及新冠肺炎疫情在中国爆发后他们受自己经历过的个人及社会冲击的影响程度。我们发现，那些此前在个人生活中经历过负面冲击的个体对于中等和较大支付风险展示出更高程度的风险厌恶。经历过社会冲击或自然灾害对于个体的风险偏好没有重大影响。在我们的样本范围内，新冠肺炎疫情对于风险偏好没有重大影响，疫情大流行更多被实验个体当作社会冲击来看待。这一结果可能表明，疫情对于个体风险偏好的影响并没有预期的那样大，除非个体的个人生活受到疫情的直接冲击。我们的发现具有重要的行为及政策启示。

Qichun He

The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model

用熊彼特货币模型探析新冠肺炎大流行

DOI:10.3868/s060-011-020-0025-1

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate how the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic— the increase in the probability of death, following Blanchardand Fischer (1989)— may affect growth and welfare in a scale-invariant R&D-based Schumpeterian model. Without money, the increase in the probability of death has no effect on long-run growth and a negative effect on welfare. By contrast, when money is introduced via the cash-in-advance constraint on consumption, the increase in the probability of death decreases long-run growth and welfare under elastic labor supply. Calibration shows that the quantitative effect of an increase in the probability of death on welfare is much larger compared to that on growth.

摘要：本文中，我们参考Blanchard 和 Fischer (1989)在一个比例不变、基于研发的熊彼特模型里考察了新冠肺炎大流行的存在—死亡率的上升—如何影响增长和福利。在没有货币的模型里，死亡率的上升对于长期增长没有影响，对于福利有负面影响。相比之下，当货币通过预付现金对于消费的制约被引入模型，在弹性劳动力供给的情况下，死亡率的上升会降低长期增长和福利。定量校正分析结果表明，死亡率上升对于福利的量化效应远比其对于增长的量化效应大。

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