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| 研究机构：高盛高华证券 分析师： Helen ... 撰写日期：2011年01月21日 | 字体[ 大 中 小 ] |
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Continuously loose conditions at end-2010 and YTD have led investors to shiftfrom fear of over-tightening to fear of behind-the-curve tightening. We feelinvestors now widely expect more decisive policy action on lending and othermeasures near-term. Equity implications are: 1) policy announcements’ impacton the offshore market should be more muted ST; but 2) concerns over policyeffectiveness are rising, so investors may want to wait longer for proof beforewe see a more sustained rally. We retain the view that 2011 may start volatile /range-bound, until we see the ‘light at the end of the CPI tunnel’. However, wesee reasonable downside protection as earnings risks are low and MXCNforward PER of 12X is now lower than the 2010 trough (in May). Even on ourbear case 11E earnings, forward PER is only in line with historical average.
Risk-reward is attractive despite imminent tightening。
We move property to our Overweight (OW) list (from Neutral) andmaintain banks on OW. We may be slightly early on the two, but better earlythan late because a) policy risks persist, but these should not be worsethan already low expectations – waiting for the final shoe to fall could betoo late; b) earnings risks are limited even amidst tightening, vs. somecyclical sectors – estimates already reflect very conservative ASP / volume,NPL formation, etc; c) significant re-rating potential exists if macrooverhangs do lift over time; d) the sectors may not fall more than marketin case of ST corrections, as valuations are at trough levels and investorpositioning is light. We move transport to Neutral from OW. Retain OW oncement, industrials, retail, and Underweight (UW) telcos and utilities.
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