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Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen apportions blame for the financial crisis between the U.S. and those parts of the developing world that run large trade surpluses (i.e. China). The developing world created an excess of cash, and the developed world misspent it, she says in comments at a Banque of France symposium in Paris.
ReutersFed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen
Here’s her take on why the developing world is to blame:
“Strong capital outflows from countries with chronic current account surpluses–in part reflecting heavily managed exchange rates, reserve accumulation, and other shortcomings in the operation of the international monetary system–put downward pressure on real interest rates, in turn boosting asset prices (particularly for housing) and enhancing the availability of credit. These developments contributed significantly to the buildup of financial imbalances.”
And here’s what the U.S. did wrong:
“Had the additional domestic credit associated with these capital inflows been used effectively, the imbalances need not have led to financial ruin. In the United States and other countries with current account deficits, however, borrowing too often supported excessive spending on housing and consumption, rather than financing productive investment. Most important, declines in underwriting standards, breakdowns in lending oversight by investors and rating agencies, increased use of opaque financial products, and more-general inadequacies in risk management by private financial institutions helped foster a dangerous and unsustainable credit boom. With the financial system evolving rapidly, supervisors and regulators, both in the United States and in many other countries, failed to recognize and address the mounting vulnerabilities. In short, these failures rooted in the financial system interacted with weaknesses in the global monetary system to create stresses and instabilities that eventually triggered–and amplified—the recent financial crisis and subsequent recession.”
No acknowledgment here that the Fed might have contributed by keeping interest rates too low for too long in the 2000s. Most Fed officials don’t believe that was the root of the problem, though the debate is hardly settled.
She calls for more flexible exchange rates and independent monetary policies, comments that again seem directed at China without naming it. The People’s Bank of China is the world’s only important central bank which isn’t independent.
“Other countries heavily manage their exchange rates, with varying mixes of capital mobility and monetary policy independence. Inflexible exchange rates in these countries have tended to inhibit adjustment of unsustainable global imbalances in trade and capital flows. Indeed, as I noted, such imbalances appear to have fostered the buildup of vulnerabilities in the run-up to the recent financial crisis.”
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